{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2017:IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4","short_pith_number":"pith:IA6OKAHU","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"403ce500f4e3be62115c53767ce9f527338dc57108352319eac2552216c57203","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1707.06452","version":3},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"A self-excited threshold autoregressive state-space model for menstrual cycles: forecasting menstruation and identifying ovarian phases based on basal body temperature","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Ai Kawamori, Keiichi Fukaya, Makio Ishiguro, Masumi Kitazawa","submitted_at":"2017-07-20T11:42:25Z","abstract_excerpt":"The menstrual cycle is composed of the follicular phase and subsequent luteal phase based on events occurring in the ovary. Basal body temperature (BBT) reflects this biphasic aspect of menstrual cycle and tends to be relatively low during the follicular phase. In the present study, we proposed a state-space model that explicitly incorporates the biphasic nature of the menstrual cycle, in which the probability density distributions for the advancement of the menstrual phase and that for BBT switch depend on a latent state variable. Our model derives the predictive distribution of the day of th"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1707.06452","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2017-07-20T11:42:25Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"01e5c6dfc4d7c960aa510c4eb19a4d37c21749d7d5d1b404ac2f07a9ea89afa9","abstract_canon_sha256":"50e709156a3f56ccab8ac24dd57672b80de1a218f7de8f47da81fc765b3f3847"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:54.034715Z","signature_b64":"wjtEJRwqEbNKwaL3mZSlIlmriAJw1k5YXITwkmkXOY4ug5QxXHnm9yGU/Mly9BNpFWW3LFZ6HF3qJcmwtx49Bg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"403ce500f4e3be62115c53767ce9f527338dc57108352319eac2552216c57203","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:54.033821Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:54.033821Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"A self-excited threshold autoregressive state-space model for menstrual cycles: forecasting menstruation and identifying ovarian phases based on basal body temperature","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Ai Kawamori, Keiichi Fukaya, Makio Ishiguro, Masumi Kitazawa","submitted_at":"2017-07-20T11:42:25Z","abstract_excerpt":"The menstrual cycle is composed of the follicular phase and subsequent luteal phase based on events occurring in the ovary. Basal body temperature (BBT) reflects this biphasic aspect of menstrual cycle and tends to be relatively low during the follicular phase. In the present study, we proposed a state-space model that explicitly incorporates the biphasic nature of the menstrual cycle, in which the probability density distributions for the advancement of the menstrual phase and that for BBT switch depend on a latent state variable. Our model derives the predictive distribution of the day of th"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1707.06452","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1707.06452","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:54.033963+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1707.06452v3","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:54.033963+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1707.06452","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:54.033963+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"IA6OKAHU4O7G","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:21.493067+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:21.493067+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"IA6OKAHU","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:21.493067+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4","json":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/IA6OKAHU"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/IA6OKAHU","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1707.06452&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/IA6OKAHU4O7GEEK4KN3HZ2PVE4/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:54.033963+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:54.033963+00:00"}