{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:J32ANHFI5RZ4SMD4QB2DSQTECH","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"35f57bf6e5b50cfa1e1bd1e25357d9b2503bd01acbc51f9ad7460b0c7538cd12","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-12-22T20:35:35Z","title_canon_sha256":"b44c7e4564df8353289d93fcd42d7501be9bb1df639606a84d136159b1ab978a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2512.19861","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2512.19861","created_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2512.19861v2","created_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2512.19861","created_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"J32ANHFI5RZ4","created_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"J32ANHFI5RZ4SMD4","created_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"J32ANHFI","created_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:dd0667d794e3161023430a27d7a385c9583a3917739336bb1403bb9b3e4efe41","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2512.19861/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Unmeasured confounding can render identification strategies based on adjustment functionals invalid. We study the \"Napkin\" graph, a causal structure that encapsulates features of M-bias, instrumental variables, and classical back-door and front-door settings, yet identifies the average treatment effect through a nonstandard ratio of two g-formulas. We develop influence-function-based estimators for this functional, including doubly-robust one-step and targeted minimum loss-based estimators that remain asymptotically linear under slower-than-parametric nuisance estimation using machine learning","authors_text":"Anna Guo, David Benkeser, Lin Liu, Razieh Nabi","cross_cats":["stat.ML"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-12-22T20:35:35Z","title":"Causal Inference with the Napkin Graph"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2512.19861","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:ca8e3c6f074bd86700d332a90493bb1495f9cbcf344a4a622492839e6800f47b","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"35f57bf6e5b50cfa1e1bd1e25357d9b2503bd01acbc51f9ad7460b0c7538cd12","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-12-22T20:35:35Z","title_canon_sha256":"b44c7e4564df8353289d93fcd42d7501be9bb1df639606a84d136159b1ab978a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2512.19861","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"4ef4069ca8ec73c9307c807439426411ccf35c7a59bb9cacd0d6cfb3d5d4dce4","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"4ef4069ca8ec73c9307c807439426411ccf35c7a59bb9cacd0d6cfb3d5d4dce4","first_computed_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48.097754Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48.097754Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"VOXUwAwCsPS1g/V4wQAS+fp/UnkGqM9Z6T4cZSC/9FRuFOS1hzJtVsacMS1bx7K7GjNkzwrBE/6K/QwnYiXyBw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-26T01:15:48.098245Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2512.19861","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:ca8e3c6f074bd86700d332a90493bb1495f9cbcf344a4a622492839e6800f47b","sha256:dd0667d794e3161023430a27d7a385c9583a3917739336bb1403bb9b3e4efe41"],"state_sha256":"bc8d45eea9c8f18c21cf0fc71613afc2af88d6563c3eec400b314c302b04c2a0"}