{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2019:J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU","short_pith_number":"pith:J7K64RLI","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"4fd5ee45682dffcec898b853104de0352aed70ab928b09a39483314f90d162df","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1911.08521","version":2},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"Synthetic Controls with Imperfect Pre-Treatment Fit","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"econ.EM","authors_text":"Bruno Ferman, Cristine Pinto","submitted_at":"2019-11-19T19:32:10Z","abstract_excerpt":"We analyze the properties of the Synthetic Control (SC) and related estimators when the pre-treatment fit is imperfect. In this framework, we show that these estimators are generally biased if treatment assignment is correlated with unobserved confounders, even when the number of pre-treatment periods goes to infinity. Still, we show that a demeaned version of the SC method can substantially improve in terms of bias and variance relative to the difference-in-difference estimator. We also derive a specification test for the demeaned SC estimator in this setting with imperfect pre-treatment fit."},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1911.08521","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2019-11-19T19:32:10Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"cbb28e6962192fb4abbb497e65fc106b149ad8402939519da4df1bcc7e80d22a","abstract_canon_sha256":"abf98093d2e3a688ce05f9435d5ed4dfc63a00f2be068a70692c7bb7162f6e06"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596698Z","signature_b64":"WgJgPPx9wB2QpJltp+VqNHZFgqMo32wYyYHhAfCfWNvbWG3MXzjLnPTdGkSuzSDGSvaKmTImmmL/wi5iETurDA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"4fd5ee45682dffcec898b853104de0352aed70ab928b09a39483314f90d162df","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596302Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596302Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Synthetic Controls with Imperfect Pre-Treatment Fit","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"econ.EM","authors_text":"Bruno Ferman, Cristine Pinto","submitted_at":"2019-11-19T19:32:10Z","abstract_excerpt":"We analyze the properties of the Synthetic Control (SC) and related estimators when the pre-treatment fit is imperfect. In this framework, we show that these estimators are generally biased if treatment assignment is correlated with unobserved confounders, even when the number of pre-treatment periods goes to infinity. Still, we show that a demeaned version of the SC method can substantially improve in terms of bias and variance relative to the difference-in-difference estimator. We also derive a specification test for the demeaned SC estimator in this setting with imperfect pre-treatment fit."},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1911.08521","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/1911.08521/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1911.08521","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596375+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1911.08521v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596375+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1911.08521","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596375+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"J7K64RLIFX74","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596375+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"J7K64RLIFX745SEY","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596375+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"J7K64RLI","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596375+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":1,"internal_anchor_count":1,"sample":[{"citing_arxiv_id":"2507.08918","citing_title":"Correlated Synthetic Controls","ref_index":32,"is_internal_anchor":true}]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU","json":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/J7K64RLI"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/J7K64RLI","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1911.08521&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596375+00:00","updated_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596375+00:00"}