{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:J7K64RLIFX745SEYXBJRATPAGU","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"abf98093d2e3a688ce05f9435d5ed4dfc63a00f2be068a70692c7bb7162f6e06","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2019-11-19T19:32:10Z","title_canon_sha256":"cbb28e6962192fb4abbb497e65fc106b149ad8402939519da4df1bcc7e80d22a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1911.08521","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1911.08521","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1911.08521v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1911.08521","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"J7K64RLIFX74","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"J7K64RLIFX745SEY","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"J7K64RLI","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:7185c2048490c2b8f20acdf0da9cc2af75fea373c9396fc8ba6ae99f53c8274e","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/1911.08521/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We analyze the properties of the Synthetic Control (SC) and related estimators when the pre-treatment fit is imperfect. In this framework, we show that these estimators are generally biased if treatment assignment is correlated with unobserved confounders, even when the number of pre-treatment periods goes to infinity. Still, we show that a demeaned version of the SC method can substantially improve in terms of bias and variance relative to the difference-in-difference estimator. We also derive a specification test for the demeaned SC estimator in this setting with imperfect pre-treatment fit.","authors_text":"Bruno Ferman, Cristine Pinto","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2019-11-19T19:32:10Z","title":"Synthetic Controls with Imperfect Pre-Treatment Fit"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1911.08521","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:53f48aa65088846a9edef3dba193ff1d0de533367a8aa75cc7246f4e481e6f2b","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"abf98093d2e3a688ce05f9435d5ed4dfc63a00f2be068a70692c7bb7162f6e06","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.EM","submitted_at":"2019-11-19T19:32:10Z","title_canon_sha256":"cbb28e6962192fb4abbb497e65fc106b149ad8402939519da4df1bcc7e80d22a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1911.08521","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"4fd5ee45682dffcec898b853104de0352aed70ab928b09a39483314f90d162df","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"4fd5ee45682dffcec898b853104de0352aed70ab928b09a39483314f90d162df","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596302Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596302Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"WgJgPPx9wB2QpJltp+VqNHZFgqMo32wYyYHhAfCfWNvbWG3MXzjLnPTdGkSuzSDGSvaKmTImmmL/wi5iETurDA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T02:06:05.596698Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1911.08521","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:53f48aa65088846a9edef3dba193ff1d0de533367a8aa75cc7246f4e481e6f2b","sha256:7185c2048490c2b8f20acdf0da9cc2af75fea373c9396fc8ba6ae99f53c8274e"],"state_sha256":"5202f51ae941557b42ead18ccb0f30c0d12ed5bd442f1a2c801536b17552e01f"}