{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3","short_pith_number":"pith:JGOZZFJ7","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2409.14865","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2024-09-23T10:01:10Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.comp-ph","physics.data-an"],"title_canon_sha256":"0742b9d85cce51ed86c79f59cfd6543eeaec8acb775034d4c32d0555233ee238","abstract_canon_sha256":"02ca06229b04de3ed8ac8d48d1a7520d06e033d49516b7b9a1ab76833032f5e2"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"499d9c953facac7721bf5c8c8972e496e8658736bd25d8af564ea74317a94c7f","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2409.14865","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2409.14865","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2409.14865v2","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2409.14865","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"JGOZZFJ7VSWH","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"JGOZZFJ7","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2409.14865","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2024-09-23T10:01:10Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.comp-ph","physics.data-an"],"title_canon_sha256":"0742b9d85cce51ed86c79f59cfd6543eeaec8acb775034d4c32d0555233ee238","abstract_canon_sha256":"02ca06229b04de3ed8ac8d48d1a7520d06e033d49516b7b9a1ab76833032f5e2"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"499d9c953facac7721bf5c8c8972e496e8658736bd25d8af564ea74317a94c7f","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48.804528Z","signature_b64":"YKgRwmfSRd7EKmlcrkS1Rr5mzW59cxmv4ao3LfTfZFfADHmmox1lAGV0Duxo0jN9XJGCELCzHUVjM5YpzAhbBw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"499d9c953facac7721bf5c8c8972e496e8658736bd25d8af564ea74317a94c7f","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48.803971Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48.803971Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2409.14865","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"OsYIXASBFAEF0jFoGWpjPhphQVd6N9ytUTiPVaHM6o543lbzdEBAUYYKsDY0ZO9oQ79aE6ScB7alG9CmuCcOAA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-13T12:51:19.538661Z"},"content_sha256":"a0202b2113cdced280c229e9aa00dbc0e2cfdc198265b9f85d2cdbba9531ddb8","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:a0202b2113cdced280c229e9aa00dbc0e2cfdc198265b9f85d2cdbba9531ddb8"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Time-Lagged Recurrence: a data-driven method to estimate the predictability of dynamical systems","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.comp-ph","physics.data-an"],"primary_cat":"nlin.CD","authors_text":"Adriano Gualandi, Chenyu Dong, Davide Faranda, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Valerio Lucarini","submitted_at":"2024-09-23T10:01:10Z","abstract_excerpt":"Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales. Classical approaches based on the Lyapunov spectrum rely on the knowledge of the dynamic forward operator, or of a data-derived approximation of it. This operator is typically unknown, or the data are too noisy to derive its faithful representation. Here we propose a new data-driven approach to analyze the local predictability of dynamical systems. This method, b"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2409.14865","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2409.14865/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"VVkbTYFYoD7Srqgu/MbR/Wy/KUuAjlwmgnG4uzp+m78h//hJ9nmHX/E05tPBJaJdIbJ1A+DkrJ681MYkYDBFDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-13T12:51:19.539061Z"},"content_sha256":"646986dfed2786f14ad41cfa9b09bca1c4e8aa78ce11aa6d41c8c5bba188a474","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:646986dfed2786f14ad41cfa9b09bca1c4e8aa78ce11aa6d41c8c5bba188a474"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-07-13T12:51:19Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7LSGIS4XES3","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"02ca06229b04de3ed8ac8d48d1a7520d06e033d49516b7b9a1ab76833032f5e2","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.comp-ph","physics.data-an"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2024-09-23T10:01:10Z","title_canon_sha256":"0742b9d85cce51ed86c79f59cfd6543eeaec8acb775034d4c32d0555233ee238"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2409.14865","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2409.14865","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2409.14865v2","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2409.14865","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"JGOZZFJ7VSWH","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"JGOZZFJ7VSWHOIN7","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"JGOZZFJ7","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:646986dfed2786f14ad41cfa9b09bca1c4e8aa78ce11aa6d41c8c5bba188a474","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2409.14865/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales. Classical approaches based on the Lyapunov spectrum rely on the knowledge of the dynamic forward operator, or of a data-derived approximation of it. This operator is typically unknown, or the data are too noisy to derive its faithful representation. Here we propose a new data-driven approach to analyze the local predictability of dynamical systems. This method, b","authors_text":"Adriano Gualandi, Chenyu Dong, Davide Faranda, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Valerio Lucarini","cross_cats":["physics.comp-ph","physics.data-an"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2024-09-23T10:01:10Z","title":"Time-Lagged Recurrence: a data-driven method to estimate the predictability of dynamical systems"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2409.14865","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:a0202b2113cdced280c229e9aa00dbc0e2cfdc198265b9f85d2cdbba9531ddb8","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"02ca06229b04de3ed8ac8d48d1a7520d06e033d49516b7b9a1ab76833032f5e2","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.comp-ph","physics.data-an"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2024-09-23T10:01:10Z","title_canon_sha256":"0742b9d85cce51ed86c79f59cfd6543eeaec8acb775034d4c32d0555233ee238"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2409.14865","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"499d9c953facac7721bf5c8c8972e496e8658736bd25d8af564ea74317a94c7f","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"499d9c953facac7721bf5c8c8972e496e8658736bd25d8af564ea74317a94c7f","first_computed_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48.803971Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48.803971Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"YKgRwmfSRd7EKmlcrkS1Rr5mzW59cxmv4ao3LfTfZFfADHmmox1lAGV0Duxo0jN9XJGCELCzHUVjM5YpzAhbBw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-30T02:16:48.804528Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2409.14865","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:a0202b2113cdced280c229e9aa00dbc0e2cfdc198265b9f85d2cdbba9531ddb8","sha256:646986dfed2786f14ad41cfa9b09bca1c4e8aa78ce11aa6d41c8c5bba188a474"],"state_sha256":"420291d3e7226197633b42d000fcdb827ccc0683724964731e289822b891f92a"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"MLCYFaap+lx86XiCS4rLHN65rRXUbukPBovuDzNCmYAwwb7hWu8+MM3jcf7OxovxSOO5e7KEUviz4BZrM0yKCg==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-13T12:51:19.541646Z","bundle_sha256":"5b1af86f9aa3df4b2d05e7dfc87f00fa144b8afe66d6606bafa0c39072162797"}}