{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF","short_pith_number":"pith:JPNE4OMQ","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1503.01678","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2015-03-05T16:15:26Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"c12a398901d8efe45e8db45ac14956a7f1e7c0df6f152a69dd92aa1f3c46d10b","abstract_canon_sha256":"c55e7594052bbee6603740a61300d11cc4cbf4cc4a5a18dfda75b4e6bd5d4c1a"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"4bda4e3990d1f9dd67e74aafe9ca2dc94ecdb5ca62754a252ab4791725663c89","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1503.01678","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1503.01678","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1503.01678v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1503.01678","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"JPNE4OMQ2H45","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:27Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7H","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:27Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"JPNE4OMQ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:27Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1503.01678","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2015-03-05T16:15:26Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"c12a398901d8efe45e8db45ac14956a7f1e7c0df6f152a69dd92aa1f3c46d10b","abstract_canon_sha256":"c55e7594052bbee6603740a61300d11cc4cbf4cc4a5a18dfda75b4e6bd5d4c1a"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"4bda4e3990d1f9dd67e74aafe9ca2dc94ecdb5ca62754a252ab4791725663c89","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55.425651Z","signature_b64":"uQWUgXRsRBAtQLZXYyUil9v9kYMtk1yC2E6z+6WyvPTC3KcUfpmPDrH1/yvqnR0K19WMyvMy3Uw4mQ/iG4oEDQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"4bda4e3990d1f9dd67e74aafe9ca2dc94ecdb5ca62754a252ab4791725663c89","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55.425117Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55.425117Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1503.01678","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"l7gEM7rXEy17GBJhHKwhkJxfFHdrB50WBfBWJoI5uxTKYAQK+CXowdsukPeVH17SEUFKBTePU3OESS56x9zhCw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T02:52:15.371534Z"},"content_sha256":"cae2902a353a8b4910b8a4f305f38516697dde52919e46ad691f373c2d24a07b","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:cae2902a353a8b4910b8a4f305f38516697dde52919e46ad691f373c2d24a07b"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Prediction in Projection","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"nlin.CD","authors_text":"Elizabeth Bradley, Joshua Garland","submitted_at":"2015-03-05T16:15:26Z","abstract_excerpt":"Prediction models that capture and use the structure of state-space dynamics can be very effective. In practice, however, one rarely has access to full information about that structure, and accurate reconstruction of the dynamics from scalar time-series data---e.g., via delay-coordinate embedding---can be a real challenge. In this paper, we show that forecast models that employ incomplete embeddings of the dynamics can produce surprisingly accurate predictions of the state of a dynamical system. In particular, we demonstrate the effectiveness of a simple near-neighbor forecast technique that w"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1503.01678","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"DUt+ir+jicApXZ5WUhgddlhQ3MCx4v7HdfzwBHF52v0i47qTyk1dmP2bPaPn4z+7bMxA9jswUDU3rm0U4v4wCA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T02:52:15.371864Z"},"content_sha256":"0f886b4368fb708ce20ba675edc52c37dc58be8e9715819ffda44c0b39c77a5b","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:0f886b4368fb708ce20ba675edc52c37dc58be8e9715819ffda44c0b39c77a5b"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-02T02:52:15Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7HJKX6TSRNZF","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"c55e7594052bbee6603740a61300d11cc4cbf4cc4a5a18dfda75b4e6bd5d4c1a","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2015-03-05T16:15:26Z","title_canon_sha256":"c12a398901d8efe45e8db45ac14956a7f1e7c0df6f152a69dd92aa1f3c46d10b"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1503.01678","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1503.01678","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1503.01678v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1503.01678","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"JPNE4OMQ2H45","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:27Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"JPNE4OMQ2H452Z7H","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:27Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"JPNE4OMQ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:27Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:0f886b4368fb708ce20ba675edc52c37dc58be8e9715819ffda44c0b39c77a5b","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Prediction models that capture and use the structure of state-space dynamics can be very effective. In practice, however, one rarely has access to full information about that structure, and accurate reconstruction of the dynamics from scalar time-series data---e.g., via delay-coordinate embedding---can be a real challenge. In this paper, we show that forecast models that employ incomplete embeddings of the dynamics can produce surprisingly accurate predictions of the state of a dynamical system. In particular, we demonstrate the effectiveness of a simple near-neighbor forecast technique that w","authors_text":"Elizabeth Bradley, Joshua Garland","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2015-03-05T16:15:26Z","title":"Prediction in Projection"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1503.01678","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:cae2902a353a8b4910b8a4f305f38516697dde52919e46ad691f373c2d24a07b","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"c55e7594052bbee6603740a61300d11cc4cbf4cc4a5a18dfda75b4e6bd5d4c1a","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"nlin.CD","submitted_at":"2015-03-05T16:15:26Z","title_canon_sha256":"c12a398901d8efe45e8db45ac14956a7f1e7c0df6f152a69dd92aa1f3c46d10b"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1503.01678","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"4bda4e3990d1f9dd67e74aafe9ca2dc94ecdb5ca62754a252ab4791725663c89","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"4bda4e3990d1f9dd67e74aafe9ca2dc94ecdb5ca62754a252ab4791725663c89","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55.425117Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55.425117Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"uQWUgXRsRBAtQLZXYyUil9v9kYMtk1yC2E6z+6WyvPTC3KcUfpmPDrH1/yvqnR0K19WMyvMy3Uw4mQ/iG4oEDQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:19:55.425651Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1503.01678","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:cae2902a353a8b4910b8a4f305f38516697dde52919e46ad691f373c2d24a07b","sha256:0f886b4368fb708ce20ba675edc52c37dc58be8e9715819ffda44c0b39c77a5b"],"state_sha256":"c10fd9e5dcdcd870648688ab04a8ba4932c21261ec37cd3453daa9c372b1cb65"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"XayKwk0sSUB/Um6iqWqKsKZhejZKbKWhR9uzaw2D86ETti4YgQK/wojnfy7rj0ndOPnKN1FLsvlEYWOxsDDxBw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T02:52:15.373709Z","bundle_sha256":"b707a8252aa3a7e90368a6484e858eac09191937de4308f38f9339a6b015f213"}}