Pith Number

pith:JQN5T4FG

pith:2026:JQN5T4FGKFL5RIPUPKJ6JBGYDT

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Addressing Confounding by Indication Through (Un)Measured Centre Characteristics in Learn-As-you-GO(LAGO) Trials

Allison R. Webel, Ante Bing, Christopher T. Longenecker, Donna Spiegelman, Hayden B. Bosworth, Judith J. Lok, Minh Thu Bui

Fixed centre effects control confounding by indication in LAGO adaptive trials even with small numbers of centres.

arxiv:2604.13276 v2 · 2026-04-14 · stat.ME · math.ST · stat.TH

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4 Citations open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We show that the fixed centre effects provide reliable control for centre-level confounding even with small numbers of centres... Consistency and asymptotic normality of the intervention effect estimators are established. Moreover, we provide valid hypothesis tests for the overall intervention effect.

C2weakest assumption

That fixed centre effects fully capture confounding by indication from both measured and unmeasured centre characteristics, and that the regularity conditions needed for consistency and asymptotic normality hold in the small-centre, multi-stage settings typical of implementation trials.

C3one line summary

LAGO trials are extended with fixed centre effects to control for centre-level confounding by indication, yielding consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for intervention effects plus constrained optimization for cost-minimizing packages that achieve target outcomes.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:03:11.412504Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

4c1bd9f0a65157d8a1f47a93e484d81cf00b2aca5e9ce811ec54e03e2c7d23f8

Aliases

arxiv: 2604.13276 · arxiv_version: 2604.13276v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2604.13276 · pith_short_12: JQN5T4FGKFL5 · pith_short_16: JQN5T4FGKFL5RIPU · pith_short_8: JQN5T4FG

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/JQN5T4FGKFL5RIPUPKJ6JBGYDT \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 4c1bd9f0a65157d8a1f47a93e484d81cf00b2aca5e9ce811ec54e03e2c7d23f8

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "ea11649ef8238b911a21af4d77c1310f3f938f64e5a7411d48e9b74be0bff280",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "math.ST",
      "stat.TH"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.ME",
    "submitted_at": "2026-04-14T20:13:26Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "17ab14c79b7e79699565b073d869583eed5b3b18cd67090908233e18d261afd5"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2604.13276",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}