{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:JT55P42DS5TEQNA474VRWO26IP","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b4ef7fee99a62a1dce7d22f491cf84d563598eca123101cf8d41f3e0175c1db6","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T08:07:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"873232dac09dd886cbdf0e847e319f82ae324c1ffa9e4b2552a4aa97627def93"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.17649","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.17649","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.17649v1","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.17649","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"JT55P42DS5TE","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"JT55P42DS5TEQNA4","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"JT55P42D","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:a9f9c9a6d40c5972463e8ea9e1f5db20430a793c8116beb0bfe25d4ac5643982","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2606.17649/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on ho","authors_text":"Chen Wang, Nan Tang, Yuxiang Luo","cross_cats":["cs.AI"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T08:07:42Z","title":"A Risk Decomposition Framework for Pre-Hoc Fine-Tuning Prediction"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.17649","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:61b94a470ee4d87bd17e0fee39afa12df5b56996709d235dad7ea17282745b84","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b4ef7fee99a62a1dce7d22f491cf84d563598eca123101cf8d41f3e0175c1db6","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T08:07:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"873232dac09dd886cbdf0e847e319f82ae324c1ffa9e4b2552a4aa97627def93"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.17649","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"4cfbd7f343976648341cff2b1b3b5e43f552273bd146869910b74a8180c7155e","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"4cfbd7f343976648341cff2b1b3b5e43f552273bd146869910b74a8180c7155e","first_computed_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18.223491Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18.223491Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"iPQK8y9kllXwwINGKsxus1jjyklX2L4jXqbOhDLeVhrTfrW3UbUdmMhQkv3MyxZTKq44YWAPn9bKQqkcAuL5Aw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-19T16:10:18.223934Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2606.17649","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:61b94a470ee4d87bd17e0fee39afa12df5b56996709d235dad7ea17282745b84","sha256:a9f9c9a6d40c5972463e8ea9e1f5db20430a793c8116beb0bfe25d4ac5643982"],"state_sha256":"24e0e713bf5566938be04e09b3ba36430ad7d51aece7744eb71d075802f99678"}