{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2011:JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O","short_pith_number":"pith:JTL2LVZW","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1110.1319","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2011-10-06T16:51:42Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"0bccd5479d19d64200d123a42b45fed30bd814971a3617a1bf66c13f2af97c57","abstract_canon_sha256":"5b1e7f3c55d6b9aa05be250a6b6ba8bbe4f837f64fcfd962fdbd29703b3bcf37"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"4cd7a5d736a29f50fcaf5b70f21524f394e71f566be94d83d8211a06477e428b","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1110.1319","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1110.1319","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1110.1319v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1110.1319","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"JTL2LVZWUKPV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"JTL2LVZW","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:32Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2011:JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1110.1319","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2011-10-06T16:51:42Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"0bccd5479d19d64200d123a42b45fed30bd814971a3617a1bf66c13f2af97c57","abstract_canon_sha256":"5b1e7f3c55d6b9aa05be250a6b6ba8bbe4f837f64fcfd962fdbd29703b3bcf37"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"4cd7a5d736a29f50fcaf5b70f21524f394e71f566be94d83d8211a06477e428b","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32.683926Z","signature_b64":"M6S7jUf8u0i7jKy4SjmlOIbuNo+PXdxfh7Fj+k+CYH9MwNwEZyxSCgMvIicenx5YxZUasTrfaUWhUIJyGj+ZBg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"4cd7a5d736a29f50fcaf5b70f21524f394e71f566be94d83d8211a06477e428b","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32.683503Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32.683503Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1110.1319","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"JOQN1x1uPwzdS24uMJxXpwMZ+5m93HWVBNdmlwDk0JgHE8ZHp1XsbjyikdQFPsscMZyHeQR4ZbbTRDEYKWkiDw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-05T08:54:12.030426Z"},"content_sha256":"356c3516ff8e8db7bc127f9e81e3745ffa7fe576b16b3674d4af3ed86f997aab","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:356c3516ff8e8db7bc127f9e81e3745ffa7fe576b16b3674d4af3ed86f997aab"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2011:JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic of a bubble based on nonlinear demographic dynamics","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","authors_text":"Didier Sornette, Peter Cauwels","submitted_at":"2011-10-06T16:51:42Z","abstract_excerpt":"We present a novel methodology to determine the fundamental value of firms in the social-networking sector based on two ingredients: (i) revenues and profits are inherently linked to its user basis through a direct channel that has no equivalent in other sectors; (ii) the growth of the number of users can be calibrated with standard logistic growth models and allows for reliable extrapolations of the size of the business at long time horizons. We illustrate the methodology with a detailed analysis of facebook, one of the biggest of the social-media giants. There is a clear signature of a chang"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1110.1319","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"KInBb3bIScc2rtKaG/kz6+AcO/sq4kGuMIvrZU+GQFB8kpPzMegMqBPWJlw3J30kccpwn/GwN2T3dQUHj9wNDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-05T08:54:12.030830Z"},"content_sha256":"39c705c542d08d570163792db44cbecacedd4c97383ecba6a906e117f6544ca9","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:39c705c542d08d570163792db44cbecacedd4c97383ecba6a906e117f6544ca9"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-05T08:54:12Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2011:JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FPLNYPEFJE6O","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"5b1e7f3c55d6b9aa05be250a6b6ba8bbe4f837f64fcfd962fdbd29703b3bcf37","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2011-10-06T16:51:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"0bccd5479d19d64200d123a42b45fed30bd814971a3617a1bf66c13f2af97c57"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1110.1319","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1110.1319","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1110.1319v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1110.1319","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"JTL2LVZWUKPV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"JTL2LVZWUKPVB7FP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"JTL2LVZW","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:32Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:39c705c542d08d570163792db44cbecacedd4c97383ecba6a906e117f6544ca9","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We present a novel methodology to determine the fundamental value of firms in the social-networking sector based on two ingredients: (i) revenues and profits are inherently linked to its user basis through a direct channel that has no equivalent in other sectors; (ii) the growth of the number of users can be calibrated with standard logistic growth models and allows for reliable extrapolations of the size of the business at long time horizons. We illustrate the methodology with a detailed analysis of facebook, one of the biggest of the social-media giants. There is a clear signature of a chang","authors_text":"Didier Sornette, Peter Cauwels","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2011-10-06T16:51:42Z","title":"Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic of a bubble based on nonlinear demographic dynamics"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1110.1319","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:356c3516ff8e8db7bc127f9e81e3745ffa7fe576b16b3674d4af3ed86f997aab","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"5b1e7f3c55d6b9aa05be250a6b6ba8bbe4f837f64fcfd962fdbd29703b3bcf37","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2011-10-06T16:51:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"0bccd5479d19d64200d123a42b45fed30bd814971a3617a1bf66c13f2af97c57"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1110.1319","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"4cd7a5d736a29f50fcaf5b70f21524f394e71f566be94d83d8211a06477e428b","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"4cd7a5d736a29f50fcaf5b70f21524f394e71f566be94d83d8211a06477e428b","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32.683503Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32.683503Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"M6S7jUf8u0i7jKy4SjmlOIbuNo+PXdxfh7Fj+k+CYH9MwNwEZyxSCgMvIicenx5YxZUasTrfaUWhUIJyGj+ZBg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:44:32.683926Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1110.1319","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:356c3516ff8e8db7bc127f9e81e3745ffa7fe576b16b3674d4af3ed86f997aab","sha256:39c705c542d08d570163792db44cbecacedd4c97383ecba6a906e117f6544ca9"],"state_sha256":"0747bc20b51ca14aa7bd176271a7887d8fa7b912fb1f3508e9c3190464a678d5"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"0L8qAafyF1EbJX45tCCKoDHsmtMJdY5/N/KXoi11TljJkEiNcnnqbtem1ODltuzzWso92ORYgnmhwU7mRmpUAA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-05T08:54:12.032955Z","bundle_sha256":"46713943a86bb43cbcde839926a88ce36bb4272f6db84a61114aff8268c59955"}}