{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP","short_pith_number":"pith:KIM5JVHD","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2605.13039","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.TH","submitted_at":"2026-05-13T05:50:02Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"daed98211a5ffc9d864a6922533aea32a6ccc8c35f15545d23bf2cf8d1cc091d","abstract_canon_sha256":"30ce0ac420d90de282fd61b9e69938c949ee20b8b131483fa6027a75ba0d2723"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"5219d4d4e3f3c4762df31d562d9f6a13e88b281f62f364172c4296e0fb9940d0","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2605.13039","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2605.13039","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2605.13039v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2605.13039","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"KIM5JVHD6PCH","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"KIM5JVHD","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:37Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2605.13039","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.TH","submitted_at":"2026-05-13T05:50:02Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"daed98211a5ffc9d864a6922533aea32a6ccc8c35f15545d23bf2cf8d1cc091d","abstract_canon_sha256":"30ce0ac420d90de282fd61b9e69938c949ee20b8b131483fa6027a75ba0d2723"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"5219d4d4e3f3c4762df31d562d9f6a13e88b281f62f364172c4296e0fb9940d0","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.582878Z","signature_b64":"RTU12qKrC14x+q9eqwMcCYkts0fn6YgJPoZh46HXiBdukEGZjaeYmpz81xsTdDSqf/8Lo7/Rj590/Y29wlQmDg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"5219d4d4e3f3c4762df31d562d9f6a13e88b281f62f364172c4296e0fb9940d0","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.582320Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.582320Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2605.13039","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"d28b6aYqA9oqVgtlU5ukzaS/yUTV7CGvAltLh3TlTM7TqAO4J54n3KluzrckoUiKxcVAn2QBTBWHTFdnySmFCw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-01T08:24:33.989533Z"},"content_sha256":"2bd7c3cd7b00111105d232e56d887445cdf23ca021bc8f3949c0acee3e1f4af8","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:2bd7c3cd7b00111105d232e56d887445cdf23ca021bc8f3949c0acee3e1f4af8"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Pitfall of Precision in Noisy Signaling","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"When signal precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare.","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"econ.TH","authors_text":"Shuhua Si, Yangfan Zhou","submitted_at":"2026-05-13T05:50:02Z","abstract_excerpt":"A principal decides whether to approve an agent based on a noisy signal (e.g., test scores) generated by the agent. High-quality agents can produce high signals on average at lower cost, but the realizations are subject to noise that depends on the screening technology's precision. We uncover a paradoxical \"pitfall of precision\": when precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare. This occurs because greater precision incentivizes strategic signaling from more low-quality agents, outweighing the direct benefit from improved precisio"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"We uncover a paradoxical 'pitfall of precision': when precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare. This occurs because greater precision incentivizes strategic signaling from more low-quality agents, outweighing the direct benefit from improved precision.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"Low-quality agents can costlessly or cheaply increase their signaling effort in response to higher precision, and the resulting increase in mimicry outweighs the direct informational gain from reduced noise.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Higher precision in noisy screening signals can reduce decision accuracy by prompting increased strategic mimicry from low-quality agents.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"When signal precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"7dbe63c0f38fc7985978d5ccaa188d640fa9df79e6d7e844b2e0aa15275a68d4"},"source":{"id":"2605.13039","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":"272c547e-0802-4b1e-8f7d-d15c72705f65","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-14T01:57:42.320020Z","strongest_claim":"We uncover a paradoxical 'pitfall of precision': when precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare. This occurs because greater precision incentivizes strategic signaling from more low-quality agents, outweighing the direct benefit from improved precision.","one_line_summary":"Higher precision in noisy screening signals can reduce decision accuracy by prompting increased strategic mimicry from low-quality agents.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"Low-quality agents can costlessly or cheaply increase their signaling effort in response to higher precision, and the resulting increase in mimicry outweighs the direct informational gain from reduced noise.","pith_extraction_headline":"When signal precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare."},"references":{"count":57,"sample":[{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"The Quarterly Journal of Economics , volume=","work_id":"64a90b72-f929-401d-9993-2c3a73660393","ref_index":1,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"Monetary Economics , volume=","work_id":"35d84df8-0ab4-4169-925b-befcecf0f61b","ref_index":2,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":2009,"title":"Journal of Public Economics , volume=","work_id":"44cd4486-80bb-41a1-b153-a2e3ea377f60","ref_index":3,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":2018,"title":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy , volume=","work_id":"b0802137-109a-48c8-aaed-5ad9581476e3","ref_index":4,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":2007,"title":"Public Finance Review , volume=","work_id":"9780ffd0-bcec-4974-a30d-5bcf06aa1196","ref_index":5,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false}],"resolved_work":57,"snapshot_sha256":"e5cb4e6c3413e0d62e9318a2b8dcec9a4d4deb74572a26c801ae2bda37892d6d","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":2,"snapshot_sha256":"28a8366619b6627033840d89c0a53dd16748b46f7a343e3bc3d8c410ec058c20"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":"272c547e-0802-4b1e-8f7d-d15c72705f65"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"UCNgyUGeB8LwVTsirj+h65M7pORglYcAJnW8Dcm4WHR2LePSkWiHgfJxQcmtHzKbeE5EqH3I2HZLCCSMRkWFDQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-01T08:24:33.990065Z"},"content_sha256":"27cecca35b048875e98271ff241df3c4ca00f52731c1cebccd48c9e011ded07b","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:27cecca35b048875e98271ff241df3c4ca00f52731c1cebccd48c9e011ded07b"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-01T08:24:33Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPTDVLC3H3KCP","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"30ce0ac420d90de282fd61b9e69938c949ee20b8b131483fa6027a75ba0d2723","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.TH","submitted_at":"2026-05-13T05:50:02Z","title_canon_sha256":"daed98211a5ffc9d864a6922533aea32a6ccc8c35f15545d23bf2cf8d1cc091d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2605.13039","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2605.13039","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2605.13039v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2605.13039","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"KIM5JVHD6PCH","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"KIM5JVHD6PCHMLPT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"KIM5JVHD","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:37Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:27cecca35b048875e98271ff241df3c4ca00f52731c1cebccd48c9e011ded07b","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"attestation":"unclaimed","claim_id":"C1","kind":"strongest_claim","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","text":"We uncover a paradoxical 'pitfall of precision': when precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare. This occurs because greater precision incentivizes strategic signaling from more low-quality agents, outweighing the direct benefit from improved precision."},{"attestation":"unclaimed","claim_id":"C2","kind":"weakest_assumption","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","text":"Low-quality agents can costlessly or cheaply increase their signaling effort in response to higher precision, and the resulting increase in mimicry outweighs the direct informational gain from reduced noise."},{"attestation":"unclaimed","claim_id":"C3","kind":"one_line_summary","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","text":"Higher precision in noisy screening signals can reduce decision accuracy by prompting increased strategic mimicry from low-quality agents."},{"attestation":"unclaimed","claim_id":"C4","kind":"headline","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","text":"When signal precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare."}],"snapshot_sha256":"7dbe63c0f38fc7985978d5ccaa188d640fa9df79e6d7e844b2e0aa15275a68d4"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":2,"snapshot_sha256":"28a8366619b6627033840d89c0a53dd16748b46f7a343e3bc3d8c410ec058c20"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"A principal decides whether to approve an agent based on a noisy signal (e.g., test scores) generated by the agent. High-quality agents can produce high signals on average at lower cost, but the realizations are subject to noise that depends on the screening technology's precision. We uncover a paradoxical \"pitfall of precision\": when precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare. This occurs because greater precision incentivizes strategic signaling from more low-quality agents, outweighing the direct benefit from improved precisio","authors_text":"Shuhua Si, Yangfan Zhou","cross_cats":[],"headline":"When signal precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare.","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.TH","submitted_at":"2026-05-13T05:50:02Z","title":"Pitfall of Precision in Noisy Signaling"},"references":{"count":57,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":57,"sample":[{"cited_arxiv_id":"","doi":"","is_internal_anchor":false,"ref_index":1,"title":"The Quarterly Journal of Economics , volume=","work_id":"64a90b72-f929-401d-9993-2c3a73660393","year":null},{"cited_arxiv_id":"","doi":"","is_internal_anchor":false,"ref_index":2,"title":"Monetary Economics , volume=","work_id":"35d84df8-0ab4-4169-925b-befcecf0f61b","year":null},{"cited_arxiv_id":"","doi":"","is_internal_anchor":false,"ref_index":3,"title":"Journal of Public Economics , volume=","work_id":"44cd4486-80bb-41a1-b153-a2e3ea377f60","year":2009},{"cited_arxiv_id":"","doi":"","is_internal_anchor":false,"ref_index":4,"title":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy , volume=","work_id":"b0802137-109a-48c8-aaed-5ad9581476e3","year":2018},{"cited_arxiv_id":"","doi":"","is_internal_anchor":false,"ref_index":5,"title":"Public Finance Review , volume=","work_id":"9780ffd0-bcec-4974-a30d-5bcf06aa1196","year":2007}],"snapshot_sha256":"e5cb4e6c3413e0d62e9318a2b8dcec9a4d4deb74572a26c801ae2bda37892d6d"},"source":{"id":"2605.13039","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":"2026-05-14T01:57:42.320020Z","id":"272c547e-0802-4b1e-8f7d-d15c72705f65","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"one_line_summary":"Higher precision in noisy screening signals can reduce decision accuracy by prompting increased strategic mimicry from low-quality agents.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","pith_extraction_headline":"When signal precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare.","strongest_claim":"We uncover a paradoxical 'pitfall of precision': when precision is already high, further improvements reduce screening accuracy and lower the principal's welfare. This occurs because greater precision incentivizes strategic signaling from more low-quality agents, outweighing the direct benefit from improved precision.","weakest_assumption":"Low-quality agents can costlessly or cheaply increase their signaling effort in response to higher precision, and the resulting increase in mimicry outweighs the direct informational gain from reduced noise."}},"verdict_id":"272c547e-0802-4b1e-8f7d-d15c72705f65"}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:2bd7c3cd7b00111105d232e56d887445cdf23ca021bc8f3949c0acee3e1f4af8","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"30ce0ac420d90de282fd61b9e69938c949ee20b8b131483fa6027a75ba0d2723","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"econ.TH","submitted_at":"2026-05-13T05:50:02Z","title_canon_sha256":"daed98211a5ffc9d864a6922533aea32a6ccc8c35f15545d23bf2cf8d1cc091d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2605.13039","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"5219d4d4e3f3c4762df31d562d9f6a13e88b281f62f364172c4296e0fb9940d0","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"5219d4d4e3f3c4762df31d562d9f6a13e88b281f62f364172c4296e0fb9940d0","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.582320Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.582320Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"RTU12qKrC14x+q9eqwMcCYkts0fn6YgJPoZh46HXiBdukEGZjaeYmpz81xsTdDSqf/8Lo7/Rj590/Y29wlQmDg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.582878Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2605.13039","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:2bd7c3cd7b00111105d232e56d887445cdf23ca021bc8f3949c0acee3e1f4af8","sha256:27cecca35b048875e98271ff241df3c4ca00f52731c1cebccd48c9e011ded07b"],"state_sha256":"acb3aa97d2b6a00d9452839ebc12caeaccde572d72f65f842f9e943b75bd028a"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"6nmOgdcb+hZIp6VfDNNP9Yiy1CBeOhZYzX0psJ0Lm4p+RSowO6PMS7JcRcRJxL7fV5SJerdfB+fu/hPaxtiWDQ==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-01T08:24:33.992949Z","bundle_sha256":"46bb65a47fff435a4d2dd09a968a20c193b5383f6103c94717ef62e9e91777c3"}}