{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:KRCELJHEXRAUOVAJEVT5Y3ESFU","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"c02981913f32b5484bc043f5908e82af7b7c2f0c82bb3d9f21ff931a72949db3","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.GN"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2014-07-11T09:41:18Z","title_canon_sha256":"7309bcbcbee2351a87c373d01abd1d0dabab649d37fc0251b42eacbe402b9f57"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1407.3652","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1407.3652","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:47:42Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1407.3652v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:47:42Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1407.3652","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:47:42Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"KRCELJHEXRAU","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"KRCELJHEXRAUOVAJ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"KRCELJHE","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:35Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:a1aeea3e0b147020e9d11c3e677e3acea87ed32a50ebba9cdf17c1e0ed7921f4","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:47:42Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrel","authors_text":"Didier Sornette, Lucas Fievet, Peter Cauwels, Zal\\`an Forr\\`o","cross_cats":["q-fin.GN"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2014-07-11T09:41:18Z","title":"Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1407.3652","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:0b772711a737dfa0ba42a8e41262d5986fdf9d0b5b90f0407aaa9c953315d276","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:47:42Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"c02981913f32b5484bc043f5908e82af7b7c2f0c82bb3d9f21ff931a72949db3","cross_cats_sorted":["q-fin.GN"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2014-07-11T09:41:18Z","title_canon_sha256":"7309bcbcbee2351a87c373d01abd1d0dabab649d37fc0251b42eacbe402b9f57"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1407.3652","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"544445a4e4bc414754092567dc6c922d1f9642253ddbde40e73c35a595c2d864","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"544445a4e4bc414754092567dc6c922d1f9642253ddbde40e73c35a595c2d864","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:47:42.123958Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:47:42.123958Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"EtSDP8vsU4Nt5plgrQ9vAj1+pdb+nME6xbfC91DOIkoETZCRfWhMmYlX4dl5S40Q+DNLNPZa3v0Cd1FdOF7LAw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:47:42.124793Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1407.3652","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:0b772711a737dfa0ba42a8e41262d5986fdf9d0b5b90f0407aaa9c953315d276","sha256:a1aeea3e0b147020e9d11c3e677e3acea87ed32a50ebba9cdf17c1e0ed7921f4"],"state_sha256":"c66575ebf420a873c7fb14b360ceaa9a824f3558ef3a51923948d8b2f93285c8"}