{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z","short_pith_number":"pith:KREIHKPB","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1509.05447","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-09-17T21:34:04Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"c7d346b762b9202278b3b2e807e1d4d1460d51a961f24b04d36f534b64751f27","abstract_canon_sha256":"ca72473ea1e05fcc568d32bad8f50bb166b271ca33ed420c155aadb928e2f0c4"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"544883a9e1df9ce2e265b21aac897bfe4cec931cdd229603350e6f45c9ea9ab1","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1509.05447","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1509.05447","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1509.05447v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1509.05447","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"KREIHKPB36OO","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"KREIHKPB36OOFYTF","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"KREIHKPB","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1509.05447","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-09-17T21:34:04Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"c7d346b762b9202278b3b2e807e1d4d1460d51a961f24b04d36f534b64751f27","abstract_canon_sha256":"ca72473ea1e05fcc568d32bad8f50bb166b271ca33ed420c155aadb928e2f0c4"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"544883a9e1df9ce2e265b21aac897bfe4cec931cdd229603350e6f45c9ea9ab1","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43.182048Z","signature_b64":"KlkHvHUiNGSyFnjk232E/pF8Mib5WS58ip2Mpc3gyBeMnRVWo1TSZQQwGImkq1PyGEZJnCHWcBa2MNL8/lKmBQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"544883a9e1df9ce2e265b21aac897bfe4cec931cdd229603350e6f45c9ea9ab1","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43.181696Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43.181696Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1509.05447","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"waki9Ln8IYH9lk2NI2kRXqt3sb76HvWINcjsxvygK4D6Gahb/b+XrA/HKUvtGeRBVSzhvjpsd+Qj8Nv5ttCQAQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-26T12:41:41.329378Z"},"content_sha256":"4b1ce717628c43d2abdeaa2c75645bdcf87b372c3d78b688bc3ca33194ff900f","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:4b1ce717628c43d2abdeaa2c75645bdcf87b372c3d78b688bc3ca33194ff900f"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Forecasting the Integration of Immigrants","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","authors_text":"Pierluigi Contucci, Rickard Sandell, Seyedalireza Seyedi","submitted_at":"2015-09-17T21:34:04Z","abstract_excerpt":"This paper presents a quantitative framework for forecasting immigrant integration using immigrant density as the single driver. By comparing forecasted integration estimates based on data collected up to specific periods in time, with observed integration quantities beyond the specified period, we show that: Our forecasts are prompt-readily available after a short period of time, accurate-with a small relative error-and finally robust-able to predict integration correctly for several years to come. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast frame"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1509.05447","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"AWeNHwWU2BeykaaembM4xh8xtxdYnyh581ZRyAmJw3zpbLbn5RJinL9Ftf6UbtfcpS+xn12stOYNLa6FCvBnCw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-26T12:41:41.329723Z"},"content_sha256":"390d33b91fc245667057ddae7695758ab1928a5274144e3498b009aed3d2dd58","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:390d33b91fc245667057ddae7695758ab1928a5274144e3498b009aed3d2dd58"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-26T12:41:41Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:KREIHKPB36OOFYTFWINKZCL37Z","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"ca72473ea1e05fcc568d32bad8f50bb166b271ca33ed420c155aadb928e2f0c4","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-09-17T21:34:04Z","title_canon_sha256":"c7d346b762b9202278b3b2e807e1d4d1460d51a961f24b04d36f534b64751f27"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1509.05447","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1509.05447","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1509.05447v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1509.05447","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"KREIHKPB36OO","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"KREIHKPB36OOFYTF","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"KREIHKPB","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:390d33b91fc245667057ddae7695758ab1928a5274144e3498b009aed3d2dd58","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"This paper presents a quantitative framework for forecasting immigrant integration using immigrant density as the single driver. By comparing forecasted integration estimates based on data collected up to specific periods in time, with observed integration quantities beyond the specified period, we show that: Our forecasts are prompt-readily available after a short period of time, accurate-with a small relative error-and finally robust-able to predict integration correctly for several years to come. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast frame","authors_text":"Pierluigi Contucci, Rickard Sandell, Seyedalireza Seyedi","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-09-17T21:34:04Z","title":"Forecasting the Integration of Immigrants"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1509.05447","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:4b1ce717628c43d2abdeaa2c75645bdcf87b372c3d78b688bc3ca33194ff900f","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"ca72473ea1e05fcc568d32bad8f50bb166b271ca33ed420c155aadb928e2f0c4","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-09-17T21:34:04Z","title_canon_sha256":"c7d346b762b9202278b3b2e807e1d4d1460d51a961f24b04d36f534b64751f27"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1509.05447","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"544883a9e1df9ce2e265b21aac897bfe4cec931cdd229603350e6f45c9ea9ab1","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"544883a9e1df9ce2e265b21aac897bfe4cec931cdd229603350e6f45c9ea9ab1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43.181696Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43.181696Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"KlkHvHUiNGSyFnjk232E/pF8Mib5WS58ip2Mpc3gyBeMnRVWo1TSZQQwGImkq1PyGEZJnCHWcBa2MNL8/lKmBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:43.182048Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1509.05447","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:4b1ce717628c43d2abdeaa2c75645bdcf87b372c3d78b688bc3ca33194ff900f","sha256:390d33b91fc245667057ddae7695758ab1928a5274144e3498b009aed3d2dd58"],"state_sha256":"8a10338d067137a5b9ffc63270308ceb9abc439c06be0f066278e3a398a399d3"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"t//zRQtXCVR3a7r/BMFanl5kBkXD+APDIfYhF8iyttHE3iTaKXZux1nL3Lv4I3Ck46PTJ4JBr0ZdDhDh31uxAw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-26T12:41:41.331608Z","bundle_sha256":"82af9415a4c9fe3fc213ed305f66c741786c3f15514bde3335d7251221750ccb"}}