{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2016:KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX","short_pith_number":"pith:KXSNYM5E","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"55e4dc33a484278255ede56fd9ac8d75f99a6295b0f016c1faeda084c328eda2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1605.07483","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"When should an expert make a prediction?","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.GT","authors_text":"Amir Ban, Yishay Mansour, Yossi Azar","submitted_at":"2016-05-24T14:39:34Z","abstract_excerpt":"We consider a setting where in a known future time, a certain continuous random variable will be realized. There is a public prediction that gradually converges to its realized value, and an expert that has access to a more accurate prediction. Our goal is to study {\\em when} should the expert reveal his information, assuming that his reward is based on a logarithmic market scoring rule (i.e., his reward is proportional to the gain in log-likelihood of the realized value).\n  Our contributions are: (1) we characterize the expert's optimal policy and show that it is threshold based. (2) we analy"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1605.07483","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.GT","submitted_at":"2016-05-24T14:39:34Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"8a2f61aeb8580518e05343d81381df6a23c0d57bf03559c92069a5b082105299","abstract_canon_sha256":"1fee6a09b4c9679df00221320c12a990541cd383f287634261c7e2bf675111e7"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:13:45.945733Z","signature_b64":"dPW4KuFVl9pqYzQEXHLYmpFSjWRWJxfRUpfszP14M9Anz49iIXYRLbOP0ttZZlvAzNLV6rrdFM4SllisMUWVCQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"55e4dc33a484278255ede56fd9ac8d75f99a6295b0f016c1faeda084c328eda2","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:13:45.945178Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:13:45.945178Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"When should an expert make a prediction?","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.GT","authors_text":"Amir Ban, Yishay Mansour, Yossi Azar","submitted_at":"2016-05-24T14:39:34Z","abstract_excerpt":"We consider a setting where in a known future time, a certain continuous random variable will be realized. There is a public prediction that gradually converges to its realized value, and an expert that has access to a more accurate prediction. Our goal is to study {\\em when} should the expert reveal his information, assuming that his reward is based on a logarithmic market scoring rule (i.e., his reward is proportional to the gain in log-likelihood of the realized value).\n  Our contributions are: (1) we characterize the expert's optimal policy and show that it is threshold based. (2) we analy"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1605.07483","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1605.07483","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:13:45.945262+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1605.07483v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:13:45.945262+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1605.07483","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:13:45.945262+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"KXSNYM5EQQTY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:29.479603+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:29.479603+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"KXSNYM5E","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:29.479603+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX","json":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/KXSNYM5E"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/KXSNYM5E","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1605.07483&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/KXSNYM5EQQTYEVPN4VX5TLENOX/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:13:45.945262+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-18T01:13:45.945262+00:00"}