{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:L5LYPA4GAICLAPKSVMCE3H5J5W","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"25b0277ff48ed8c856e4eba0ffc1b1ef41b1fbdea4568b1cf4d4616c012e9be8","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2015-05-15T13:38:10Z","title_canon_sha256":"12865f7177d65826e42c5602ab3b729dd8bccf533883a3f91b1a028dcd3046d5"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1505.04060","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1505.04060","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:00:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1505.04060v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:00:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1505.04060","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:00:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"L5LYPA4GAICL","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"L5LYPA4GAICLAPKS","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"L5LYPA4G","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:29Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:7f5ee9320f2ebd49019de7b6f33b502cc2b92e2dc0a0a9b153d99413fa9b922a","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:00:17Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and are normally followed by a trend reversal that corrects the previous over reaction. In this paper, we construct an indicator to measure the magnitude of the super-exponential growth of stock prices, by measuring the degree of the price network, generated from the price time series.","authors_text":"Edgar van Tuyll van Serooskerken, Wanfeng Yan","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2015-05-15T13:38:10Z","title":"Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-exponential Growth"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1505.04060","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:463093510fc1669cd391c8823fb7e0a77124e8b0b0a17574704de2527f46d82b","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:00:17Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"25b0277ff48ed8c856e4eba0ffc1b1ef41b1fbdea4568b1cf4d4616c012e9be8","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2015-05-15T13:38:10Z","title_canon_sha256":"12865f7177d65826e42c5602ab3b729dd8bccf533883a3f91b1a028dcd3046d5"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1505.04060","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"5f578783860204b03d52ab044d9fa9eda3e682f22b6ff7741b0afb1a76bdb4a2","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"5f578783860204b03d52ab044d9fa9eda3e682f22b6ff7741b0afb1a76bdb4a2","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:00:17.529813Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:00:17.529813Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"b85u0LzC+asE7TL+I5sx+L3FcI2cFdoGSsdK+4VBL8D1tIMwMVCrvCG0PnL9HvEcjpMI8TWBl1IqpsEH5Iw0Aw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:00:17.530492Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1505.04060","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:463093510fc1669cd391c8823fb7e0a77124e8b0b0a17574704de2527f46d82b","sha256:7f5ee9320f2ebd49019de7b6f33b502cc2b92e2dc0a0a9b153d99413fa9b922a"],"state_sha256":"65ea8b58339dfc922a793f2250893b42511e3b99f05c505298b80afb077014ab"}