{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN","short_pith_number":"pith:MGD4ZFCL","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1509.04774","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2015-09-15T23:57:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":["math.DS"],"title_canon_sha256":"c2b21bd69156b5d80f8359368fd438a91fa512bb21d07041b72e632b52c74d11","abstract_canon_sha256":"5d096bb7f70a154a814821a7aebd8265cff8fadc2745b1795ba07e68ebf53d16"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"6187cc944b689403c0ef2393ebcb587b5040b68227cf5f0c219eef3a0d78944e","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1509.04774","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1509.04774","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1509.04774v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1509.04774","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"MGD4ZFCLNCKA","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"MGD4ZFCL","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:32Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1509.04774","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2015-09-15T23:57:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":["math.DS"],"title_canon_sha256":"c2b21bd69156b5d80f8359368fd438a91fa512bb21d07041b72e632b52c74d11","abstract_canon_sha256":"5d096bb7f70a154a814821a7aebd8265cff8fadc2745b1795ba07e68ebf53d16"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"6187cc944b689403c0ef2393ebcb587b5040b68227cf5f0c219eef3a0d78944e","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51.742251Z","signature_b64":"1PIvpNlM94LQmc5U2Q6AOvI2qc1/+oKVzrCc4NSL2ICPZJxYGoD+JNJU51dnh8i6/pzGiQPWVB5T3RYQx2+9Aw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"6187cc944b689403c0ef2393ebcb587b5040b68227cf5f0c219eef3a0d78944e","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51.741718Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51.741718Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1509.04774","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"CGugs/z/bvu5nce+RHe543qug+BNYDCOuiiU00o0ym8pQXbh13P4ubVdleBYuo5zrSN2j+k9ruQJmHMgwFWlAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T04:23:08.497152Z"},"content_sha256":"70d2bde3fa68090934ae3ffafba8dc9e59f3463db950015183f368be67c2d339","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:70d2bde3fa68090934ae3ffafba8dc9e59f3463db950015183f368be67c2d339"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) with Instrumental Variables for the Identification of ARX Systems - Extended Version","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.DS"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Algo Car\\`e, Bal\\'azs Cs. Cs\\'aji, Erik Weyer, Marco C. Campi, Valerio Volpe","submitted_at":"2015-09-15T23:57:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"We propose a generalization of the recently developed system identification method called Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS). The proposed construction is based on the instrumental variables estimate and, unlike the original SPS, it can construct non-asymptotic confidence regions for linear regression models where the regressors contain past values of the output. Hence, it is applicable to ARX systems, as well as systems with feedback. We show that this approach provides regions with exact confidence under weak assumptions, i.e., the true parameter is included in the regions with a (user-chosen) exact "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1509.04774","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"sHc8r/RZ1rV9bOsyw+zd48hX64xwqooCjeW47vnwRmwZ3Uc6mi9Dd6lDOIc8dkIOU6MmPLpYaRNAuyEAwU8cBg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T04:23:08.497519Z"},"content_sha256":"7054e04437a863c2a89e3dd331b9587c2ce54c35863a14eb13d96c1644637ab7","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:7054e04437a863c2a89e3dd331b9587c2ce54c35863a14eb13d96c1644637ab7"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-02T04:23:08Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHPEOJ6XS2YPN","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"5d096bb7f70a154a814821a7aebd8265cff8fadc2745b1795ba07e68ebf53d16","cross_cats_sorted":["math.DS"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2015-09-15T23:57:50Z","title_canon_sha256":"c2b21bd69156b5d80f8359368fd438a91fa512bb21d07041b72e632b52c74d11"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1509.04774","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1509.04774","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1509.04774v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1509.04774","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"MGD4ZFCLNCKA","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"MGD4ZFCLNCKAHQHP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"MGD4ZFCL","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:32Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:7054e04437a863c2a89e3dd331b9587c2ce54c35863a14eb13d96c1644637ab7","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We propose a generalization of the recently developed system identification method called Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS). The proposed construction is based on the instrumental variables estimate and, unlike the original SPS, it can construct non-asymptotic confidence regions for linear regression models where the regressors contain past values of the output. Hence, it is applicable to ARX systems, as well as systems with feedback. We show that this approach provides regions with exact confidence under weak assumptions, i.e., the true parameter is included in the regions with a (user-chosen) exact ","authors_text":"Algo Car\\`e, Bal\\'azs Cs. Cs\\'aji, Erik Weyer, Marco C. Campi, Valerio Volpe","cross_cats":["math.DS"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2015-09-15T23:57:50Z","title":"Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) with Instrumental Variables for the Identification of ARX Systems - Extended Version"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1509.04774","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:70d2bde3fa68090934ae3ffafba8dc9e59f3463db950015183f368be67c2d339","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"5d096bb7f70a154a814821a7aebd8265cff8fadc2745b1795ba07e68ebf53d16","cross_cats_sorted":["math.DS"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2015-09-15T23:57:50Z","title_canon_sha256":"c2b21bd69156b5d80f8359368fd438a91fa512bb21d07041b72e632b52c74d11"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1509.04774","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"6187cc944b689403c0ef2393ebcb587b5040b68227cf5f0c219eef3a0d78944e","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"6187cc944b689403c0ef2393ebcb587b5040b68227cf5f0c219eef3a0d78944e","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51.741718Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51.741718Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"1PIvpNlM94LQmc5U2Q6AOvI2qc1/+oKVzrCc4NSL2ICPZJxYGoD+JNJU51dnh8i6/pzGiQPWVB5T3RYQx2+9Aw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:32:51.742251Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1509.04774","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:70d2bde3fa68090934ae3ffafba8dc9e59f3463db950015183f368be67c2d339","sha256:7054e04437a863c2a89e3dd331b9587c2ce54c35863a14eb13d96c1644637ab7"],"state_sha256":"c577c3e64bb3c8bf3d68165fb6b389de8c435cf7a1758647cfa0da312eeb5422"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Z7OWFu6mtGfDsw7MA5Z2ivSoqkF8wfq97jEwyah+bceleLF3SN6hS6WR/DzRaWykS2AMQzztQ7blyqDENoxQAA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-02T04:23:08.499466Z","bundle_sha256":"c68b7680199acdb2b59ff56ef0e70ee591a10c653bfcea77f54d5fc995717e0b"}}