{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM","short_pith_number":"pith:MWFXI4V5","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1706.08440","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T15:36:15Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"be013fa6b9e1affd5832679ecc069e07b7e23f10376e58de97c0761491649ea5","abstract_canon_sha256":"c56993a7efbcd418393913ce12ef1164064b044ffa74990065b0456b6a6798fd"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"658b7472bdaeb7f09003e4147c50a183058ac7e0602a493108107b13aed22cfc","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1706.08440","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1706.08440","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1706.08440v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1706.08440","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"MWFXI4V5V237","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"MWFXI4V5V237BEAD","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"MWFXI4V5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:31Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1706.08440","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T15:36:15Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"be013fa6b9e1affd5832679ecc069e07b7e23f10376e58de97c0761491649ea5","abstract_canon_sha256":"c56993a7efbcd418393913ce12ef1164064b044ffa74990065b0456b6a6798fd"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"658b7472bdaeb7f09003e4147c50a183058ac7e0602a493108107b13aed22cfc","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17.442669Z","signature_b64":"VbY30mFm3mDwiZiztuFDPbz9YU0EwRnKdUnHYwJG6ehTLM0KwS2ffeIUUJ1kVY9yxGOaVd4imosNxtJYG7ToBw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"658b7472bdaeb7f09003e4147c50a183058ac7e0602a493108107b13aed22cfc","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17.441933Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17.441933Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1706.08440","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"xe2mtGodfuo2uWh9Tf/kHvRqkozinL4zT6tOvT5m9/nMR/KSKaouBAHZ/ewZWaIp5O0j9qhZK13Cr/TPM2GoAQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-26T08:50:40.317119Z"},"content_sha256":"e8941a57c54b7dc01c2fc4f7feb060603f72a61d0170c5fe88687f9982e561cc","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:e8941a57c54b7dc01c2fc4f7feb060603f72a61d0170c5fe88687f9982e561cc"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Challenges to estimating contagion effects from observational data","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Elizabeth L. Ogburn","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T15:36:15Z","abstract_excerpt":"A growing body of literature attempts to learn about contagion using observational (i.e. non-experimental) data collected from a single social network. While the conclusions of these studies may be correct, the methods rely on assumptions that are likely--and sometimes guaranteed to be--false, and therefore the evidence for the conclusions is often weaker than it seems. Developing methods that do not need to rely on implausible assumptions is an incredibly challenging and important open problem in statistics. Appropriate methods don't (yet!) exist, so researchers hoping to learn about contagio"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1706.08440","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"syCr4PfT6Lo1OIRZA7vLd5lhYxzFhdyL3px25LsTyux0p985SS1uvzO0c1uN3w5TM/yYkwEKsLIJp9WjjyY3Bg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-26T08:50:40.317837Z"},"content_sha256":"6ca6327de42ed66786249a774f75f9b627e7b0d838f7d258713f13f2a9d79fb8","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:6ca6327de42ed66786249a774f75f9b627e7b0d838f7d258713f13f2a9d79fb8"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-05-26T08:50:40Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:MWFXI4V5V237BEAD4QKHYUFBQM","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"c56993a7efbcd418393913ce12ef1164064b044ffa74990065b0456b6a6798fd","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T15:36:15Z","title_canon_sha256":"be013fa6b9e1affd5832679ecc069e07b7e23f10376e58de97c0761491649ea5"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1706.08440","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1706.08440","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1706.08440v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1706.08440","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"MWFXI4V5V237","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"MWFXI4V5V237BEAD","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"MWFXI4V5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:31Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:6ca6327de42ed66786249a774f75f9b627e7b0d838f7d258713f13f2a9d79fb8","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"A growing body of literature attempts to learn about contagion using observational (i.e. non-experimental) data collected from a single social network. While the conclusions of these studies may be correct, the methods rely on assumptions that are likely--and sometimes guaranteed to be--false, and therefore the evidence for the conclusions is often weaker than it seems. Developing methods that do not need to rely on implausible assumptions is an incredibly challenging and important open problem in statistics. Appropriate methods don't (yet!) exist, so researchers hoping to learn about contagio","authors_text":"Elizabeth L. Ogburn","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T15:36:15Z","title":"Challenges to estimating contagion effects from observational data"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1706.08440","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:e8941a57c54b7dc01c2fc4f7feb060603f72a61d0170c5fe88687f9982e561cc","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"c56993a7efbcd418393913ce12ef1164064b044ffa74990065b0456b6a6798fd","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T15:36:15Z","title_canon_sha256":"be013fa6b9e1affd5832679ecc069e07b7e23f10376e58de97c0761491649ea5"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1706.08440","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"658b7472bdaeb7f09003e4147c50a183058ac7e0602a493108107b13aed22cfc","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"658b7472bdaeb7f09003e4147c50a183058ac7e0602a493108107b13aed22cfc","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17.441933Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17.441933Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"VbY30mFm3mDwiZiztuFDPbz9YU0EwRnKdUnHYwJG6ehTLM0KwS2ffeIUUJ1kVY9yxGOaVd4imosNxtJYG7ToBw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:41:17.442669Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1706.08440","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:e8941a57c54b7dc01c2fc4f7feb060603f72a61d0170c5fe88687f9982e561cc","sha256:6ca6327de42ed66786249a774f75f9b627e7b0d838f7d258713f13f2a9d79fb8"],"state_sha256":"af87895bf9518e6ec9ffd8f02f0c472c46d0060303724ee5c5b976f0f801cb79"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"sld1aL4S5553iHAoUJN8jVHFYQnFOr+fzr1lPH6v6UbmgzDFI8+EGOfBF9wVLxEPqaZDKPxEZOAuLjWY7gmwDw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-26T08:50:40.321499Z","bundle_sha256":"9825d8f511127944d6c866dd480bd2f2a958da7a165e533a25fbb079c31b76db"}}