{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2016:N52PHRGLE56HWQH3CUGL6QR4NT","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"d23bc719c0a63857986f786966f5ff7fdf0e277cf8b3649d8bc1e5ea8808f455","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2016-12-21T18:50:44Z","title_canon_sha256":"efc606569aec3b48c49fc3c6a788c03eb0651c2cec249e530c6557d576fffb72"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1612.07272","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1612.07272","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:28:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1612.07272v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:28:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1612.07272","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:28:25Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"N52PHRGLE56H","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"N52PHRGLE56HWQH3","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"N52PHRGL","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:32Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:766326a165ca47e3c620b3e0d1ec711dd307ae9f116a15d4c7b1fe3dc10153ac","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:28:25Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We propose a nonparametric approach for probabilistic prediction of the AL index trained with AL and solar wind ($v B_z$) data. Our framework relies on the diffusion forecasting technique, which views AL and $ v B_z $ data as observables of an autonomous, ergodic, stochastic dynamical system operating on a manifold. Diffusion forecasting builds a data-driven representation of the Markov semigroup governing the evolution of probability measures of the dynamical system. In particular, the Markov semigroup operator is represented in an orthonormal basis acquired from data using the diffusion maps","authors_text":"Dimitrios Giannakis, John Harlim, Matina Gkioulidou","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2016-12-21T18:50:44Z","title":"Probabilistic prediction of the AL index with the diffusion forecasting model"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1612.07272","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:9212b5e55247823b0b587ef5872c1c89ab561f8e0129b0b04bac40eddf04ebcd","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:28:25Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"d23bc719c0a63857986f786966f5ff7fdf0e277cf8b3649d8bc1e5ea8808f455","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2016-12-21T18:50:44Z","title_canon_sha256":"efc606569aec3b48c49fc3c6a788c03eb0651c2cec249e530c6557d576fffb72"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1612.07272","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"6f74f3c4cb277c7b40fb150cbf423c6cf38ae9ab59b2fd78d1afd97fbb193959","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"6f74f3c4cb277c7b40fb150cbf423c6cf38ae9ab59b2fd78d1afd97fbb193959","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:28:25.852007Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:28:25.852007Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"2/slp8L6lM1qHR0xx8rcZQxF+he0ll9zDp/+BZmLN0bxpWB1lqsYFrOj0o/Zy/9zYkEHNVZHFepzcbcdbk2OBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:28:25.852835Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1612.07272","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:9212b5e55247823b0b587ef5872c1c89ab561f8e0129b0b04bac40eddf04ebcd","sha256:766326a165ca47e3c620b3e0d1ec711dd307ae9f116a15d4c7b1fe3dc10153ac"],"state_sha256":"1418081741d5fd56f9357b360a70585c03cbd1d8b63fbb3500a20640029620b4"}