{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2026:OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J","short_pith_number":"pith:OUCA2SIU","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"75040d4914dd6f996deba5a1f45f67e24b384e3047a82399f07d7a4e4a50a833","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2607.17908","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"PIONEER: Bayesian Joint Modelling of Mechanistic Tumour Growth and Time-to-Event Endpoints for Dynamic Prediction of Ongoing Oncology Trials","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.ST","stat.ME","stat.OT","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Antonia Bevan, Jessica Davies, Karim Naguib, Lu Li, Paul Metcalfe, Roger Berch\\'e, Sajan Khosla","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T12:59:39Z","abstract_excerpt":"High-stakes decisions in oncology clinical trials must often be made while survival data remains immature: progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are heavily censored, few events have accumulated, and the primary endpoint may be months or years from reading out. What is available at interim data cut-offs is information-rich longitudinal tumour measurements and baseline covariates. We present PIONEER, a Bayesian joint modelling framework that couples a mechanistic two-component state-space submodel of longitudinal tumour size dynamics to a multistate proportional-hazard submo"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2607.17908","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T12:59:39Z","cross_cats_sorted":["math.ST","stat.ME","stat.OT","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"e4576cc51983b031059522da2d08ffec02c1c0ec4c03f492f28cd193712cf21a","abstract_canon_sha256":"159dac772bc1c9030e5e0e8e156eb92237c72cbe96f93348a27dcdb979cdd210"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.081001Z","signature_b64":"oL+jRvI81f02h8lCh3Iacdvt2HERNwIquLUY7g1VmforYk4cVbxr0CqiSzwcxoqPm6t3lfJ+ohw1R8avYilnBQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"75040d4914dd6f996deba5a1f45f67e24b384e3047a82399f07d7a4e4a50a833","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080146Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080146Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"PIONEER: Bayesian Joint Modelling of Mechanistic Tumour Growth and Time-to-Event Endpoints for Dynamic Prediction of Ongoing Oncology Trials","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.ST","stat.ME","stat.OT","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Antonia Bevan, Jessica Davies, Karim Naguib, Lu Li, Paul Metcalfe, Roger Berch\\'e, Sajan Khosla","submitted_at":"2026-07-20T12:59:39Z","abstract_excerpt":"High-stakes decisions in oncology clinical trials must often be made while survival data remains immature: progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are heavily censored, few events have accumulated, and the primary endpoint may be months or years from reading out. What is available at interim data cut-offs is information-rich longitudinal tumour measurements and baseline covariates. We present PIONEER, a Bayesian joint modelling framework that couples a mechanistic two-component state-space submodel of longitudinal tumour size dynamics to a multistate proportional-hazard submo"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.17908","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.17908/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2607.17908","created_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080598+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2607.17908v1","created_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080598+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2607.17908","created_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080598+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"OUCA2SIU3VXZ","created_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080598+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PL","created_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080598+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"OUCA2SIU","created_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080598+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J","json":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/OUCA2SIU"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/OUCA2SIU","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=2607.17908&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/OUCA2SIU3VXZS3PLUWQ7IX3H4J/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080598+00:00","updated_at":"2026-07-21T02:22:06.080598+00:00"}