{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW","short_pith_number":"pith:OZ44EVFT","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2402.19379","kind":"arxiv","version":6},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CY","submitted_at":"2024-02-29T17:27:59Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","cs.CL","cs.LG"],"title_canon_sha256":"6335488411593759bd5bf17a2519bec6a226adabf2893ca280be5ef526c4fab9","abstract_canon_sha256":"ac2280944947b4b462f9a4f857c997d1cdf716a90db5ab67c3fa965b32076e7c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"7679c254b37776279339cb3987112915a1f423e04bd2d2f19d20aa61981523b1","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2402.19379","version":6},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2402.19379","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2402.19379v6","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2402.19379","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"OZ44EVFTO53C","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZ","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"OZ44EVFT","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2402.19379","kind":"arxiv","version":6},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CY","submitted_at":"2024-02-29T17:27:59Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","cs.CL","cs.LG"],"title_canon_sha256":"6335488411593759bd5bf17a2519bec6a226adabf2893ca280be5ef526c4fab9","abstract_canon_sha256":"ac2280944947b4b462f9a4f857c997d1cdf716a90db5ab67c3fa965b32076e7c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"7679c254b37776279339cb3987112915a1f423e04bd2d2f19d20aa61981523b1","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53.544883Z","signature_b64":"yFWlDycJcxxrUzQq/jNm4d+YzYNt6zsa+6JwA1+iBHJm++LQ6+xIKvAafHjIFqSPvcjL/wNJx9L85ZD/m0yVAg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"7679c254b37776279339cb3987112915a1f423e04bd2d2f19d20aa61981523b1","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53.544120Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53.544120Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2402.19379","source_version":6,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"ecw+WccawFuF+R39fbgp48AMgpzLXIHyI/ANvsg9uDWkyS9hEv/P9/L1ovpi/iJQQuHJsw2GHyxfREA/pdSCCg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-20T07:58:16.589770Z"},"content_sha256":"091432a2e14fc258fb088a56729c2ac4340421cbe3d7164c3be88b80eebfdcdd","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:091432a2e14fc258fb088a56729c2ac4340421cbe3d7164c3be88b80eebfdcdd"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.CL","cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"cs.CY","authors_text":"Indre Tuminauskaite, Peter S. Park, Philip E. Tetlock, Philipp Schoenegger","submitted_at":"2024-02-29T17:27:59Z","abstract_excerpt":"Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2402.19379","kind":"arxiv","version":6},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2402.19379/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"7IgUQ1O+BrcnRxROBTqcH6Sdayp1j10qL9krXIa4QXUEzrqoX8sbFDcruC4BFPC1YB10vzsfAbJKvx9MD9/MAA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-20T07:58:16.590274Z"},"content_sha256":"59e10bd7a3b3f09b6497225871f10c2759b0665433482e71352b0d936f3c1b39","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:59e10bd7a3b3f09b6497225871f10c2759b0665433482e71352b0d936f3c1b39"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-20T07:58:16Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZZM4YOEJJCW","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"ac2280944947b4b462f9a4f857c997d1cdf716a90db5ab67c3fa965b32076e7c","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","cs.CL","cs.LG"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CY","submitted_at":"2024-02-29T17:27:59Z","title_canon_sha256":"6335488411593759bd5bf17a2519bec6a226adabf2893ca280be5ef526c4fab9"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2402.19379","kind":"arxiv","version":6}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2402.19379","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2402.19379v6","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2402.19379","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"OZ44EVFTO53C","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"OZ44EVFTO53CPEZZ","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"OZ44EVFT","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:59e10bd7a3b3f09b6497225871f10c2759b0665433482e71352b0d936f3c1b39","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2402.19379/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions ","authors_text":"Indre Tuminauskaite, Peter S. Park, Philip E. Tetlock, Philipp Schoenegger","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.CL","cs.LG"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CY","submitted_at":"2024-02-29T17:27:59Z","title":"Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2402.19379","kind":"arxiv","version":6},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:091432a2e14fc258fb088a56729c2ac4340421cbe3d7164c3be88b80eebfdcdd","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"ac2280944947b4b462f9a4f857c997d1cdf716a90db5ab67c3fa965b32076e7c","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","cs.CL","cs.LG"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CY","submitted_at":"2024-02-29T17:27:59Z","title_canon_sha256":"6335488411593759bd5bf17a2519bec6a226adabf2893ca280be5ef526c4fab9"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2402.19379","kind":"arxiv","version":6}},"canonical_sha256":"7679c254b37776279339cb3987112915a1f423e04bd2d2f19d20aa61981523b1","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"7679c254b37776279339cb3987112915a1f423e04bd2d2f19d20aa61981523b1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53.544120Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53.544120Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"yFWlDycJcxxrUzQq/jNm4d+YzYNt6zsa+6JwA1+iBHJm++LQ6+xIKvAafHjIFqSPvcjL/wNJx9L85ZD/m0yVAg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T08:46:53.544883Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2402.19379","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":6}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:091432a2e14fc258fb088a56729c2ac4340421cbe3d7164c3be88b80eebfdcdd","sha256:59e10bd7a3b3f09b6497225871f10c2759b0665433482e71352b0d936f3c1b39"],"state_sha256":"3366dc2f47bbf181226230cac753d04cd9605101c83de33c585a492214bca408"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"aJUsnMGhr1QT42LBWQfm749bU4bV1yOJROWTMCGEeZnV1DoyD6XwKCXGa69TmzfCONfjuquAAZ4a/14laTCjDA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-20T07:58:16.596192Z","bundle_sha256":"e0db81d7b1d3f5ec193612aed93979277a26e72d5c737bdf5ac9b40c6fdb8edf"}}