{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL","short_pith_number":"pith:PYRLTQ2X","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1703.01450","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cond-mat.stat-mech","submitted_at":"2017-03-04T12:49:37Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an","physics.geo-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"cba5a78487131869aac2e2a054c7bfbcf9d75de89236a30a77e6538a4a534554","abstract_canon_sha256":"b2d163091261f769094767bb2e60d2ee5f3133907869590d5f04072567a3db01"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"7e22b9c357cdbc244b9f509171186502dadf5c189d6d59aee45494f1a0ed7ea6","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1703.01450","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1703.01450","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1703.01450v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1703.01450","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"PYRLTQ2XZW6C","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"PYRLTQ2X","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:37Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1703.01450","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cond-mat.stat-mech","submitted_at":"2017-03-04T12:49:37Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an","physics.geo-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"cba5a78487131869aac2e2a054c7bfbcf9d75de89236a30a77e6538a4a534554","abstract_canon_sha256":"b2d163091261f769094767bb2e60d2ee5f3133907869590d5f04072567a3db01"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"7e22b9c357cdbc244b9f509171186502dadf5c189d6d59aee45494f1a0ed7ea6","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59.348945Z","signature_b64":"SNoS7ONQwQTLHsSfbFHoX7TjgyRO80xLd6g7v5eSF0bM8efNWjvrKVHUh0DGo5t7W0/NGVDx7R344Ru+93bTAA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"7e22b9c357cdbc244b9f509171186502dadf5c189d6d59aee45494f1a0ed7ea6","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59.348142Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59.348142Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1703.01450","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"fqLnxr5WX7W++0cKyCP1kPeKGDZj0gZNMXuUKjRzLKtjaO4mzIxUFxgfJTAgZ25vW7YbnXH+3kWV8fBb8UeGDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-20T20:25:46.875005Z"},"content_sha256":"e71e7523797de7afdbe47836a04f72407301079567411af7dae2cdabcbcb9fa4","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:e71e7523797de7afdbe47836a04f72407301079567411af7dae2cdabcbcb9fa4"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Predictability of escape for a stochastic saddle-node bifurcation: when rare events are typical","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.data-an","physics.geo-ph"],"primary_cat":"cond-mat.stat-mech","authors_text":"Corentin Herbert, Freddy Bouchet","submitted_at":"2017-03-04T12:49:37Z","abstract_excerpt":"Transitions between multiple stable states of nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in physics, chemistry, and beyond. Two types of behaviors are usually seen as mutually exclusive: unpredictable noise-induced transitions and predictable bifurcations of the underlying vector field. Here, we report a new situation, corresponding to a fluctuating system approaching a bifurcation, where both effects collaborate. We show that the problem can be reduced to a single control parameter governing the competition between deterministic and stochastic effects. Two asymptotic regimes are identified: when the co"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1703.01450","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"HK+DigLGjb+l+3DrAMUD44KUNo7Mw8ZEqOie3f2/w9ws2Ms+MMJsu+qb0nwgR5XoUPvTckCgpN30CRTunEd2Cw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-20T20:25:46.875632Z"},"content_sha256":"c908baf2242f680c4cfab9ea4c481baf00325137851e2e026674e924849ef44b","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:c908baf2242f680c4cfab9ea4c481baf00325137851e2e026674e924849ef44b"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-05-20T20:25:46Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47KCIXCGDFAL","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b2d163091261f769094767bb2e60d2ee5f3133907869590d5f04072567a3db01","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an","physics.geo-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cond-mat.stat-mech","submitted_at":"2017-03-04T12:49:37Z","title_canon_sha256":"cba5a78487131869aac2e2a054c7bfbcf9d75de89236a30a77e6538a4a534554"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1703.01450","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1703.01450","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1703.01450v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1703.01450","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"PYRLTQ2XZW6C","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"PYRLTQ2XZW6CIS47","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"PYRLTQ2X","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:37Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:c908baf2242f680c4cfab9ea4c481baf00325137851e2e026674e924849ef44b","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Transitions between multiple stable states of nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in physics, chemistry, and beyond. Two types of behaviors are usually seen as mutually exclusive: unpredictable noise-induced transitions and predictable bifurcations of the underlying vector field. Here, we report a new situation, corresponding to a fluctuating system approaching a bifurcation, where both effects collaborate. We show that the problem can be reduced to a single control parameter governing the competition between deterministic and stochastic effects. Two asymptotic regimes are identified: when the co","authors_text":"Corentin Herbert, Freddy Bouchet","cross_cats":["physics.data-an","physics.geo-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cond-mat.stat-mech","submitted_at":"2017-03-04T12:49:37Z","title":"Predictability of escape for a stochastic saddle-node bifurcation: when rare events are typical"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1703.01450","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:e71e7523797de7afdbe47836a04f72407301079567411af7dae2cdabcbcb9fa4","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b2d163091261f769094767bb2e60d2ee5f3133907869590d5f04072567a3db01","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an","physics.geo-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cond-mat.stat-mech","submitted_at":"2017-03-04T12:49:37Z","title_canon_sha256":"cba5a78487131869aac2e2a054c7bfbcf9d75de89236a30a77e6538a4a534554"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1703.01450","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"7e22b9c357cdbc244b9f509171186502dadf5c189d6d59aee45494f1a0ed7ea6","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"7e22b9c357cdbc244b9f509171186502dadf5c189d6d59aee45494f1a0ed7ea6","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59.348142Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59.348142Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"SNoS7ONQwQTLHsSfbFHoX7TjgyRO80xLd6g7v5eSF0bM8efNWjvrKVHUh0DGo5t7W0/NGVDx7R344Ru+93bTAA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:33:59.348945Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1703.01450","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:e71e7523797de7afdbe47836a04f72407301079567411af7dae2cdabcbcb9fa4","sha256:c908baf2242f680c4cfab9ea4c481baf00325137851e2e026674e924849ef44b"],"state_sha256":"86a7fb0eda91049868002b9d9b71f2b445fea6e487673c52ef38ed6acb89e6fe"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"uC+Y+FKffMWHJ32pc9ynBESFTjj9+6QiakBa2Ek4Srf8H80Kv8pMbZd8suKdvCW6RBJrupSHFWk/6aHjw9dpDg==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-20T20:25:46.878901Z","bundle_sha256":"d2a50c20fac374942d995fea4bc06242f9b1dade9ba47826b9f1fe7380b43982"}}