{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO","short_pith_number":"pith:QT6M2A4J","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2607.20441","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2026-05-12T09:22:45Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG"],"title_canon_sha256":"c1dbfc69cd49ebd8b87aaa523e419bfb9e38898becc8b6bb80ab147ef7b590f4","abstract_canon_sha256":"0e9a19c864b9d96262cf53050293f83d28a8db1496c48511788d6306ac7daadb"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"84fccd0389db3df277fbc1ab86cbfa8bb5cb46d3c53f65a0e4ffbbb57b86e5f2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2607.20441","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2607.20441","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2607.20441v1","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2607.20441","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"QT6M2A4J3M67","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"QT6M2A4J3M67E573","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"QT6M2A4J","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2607.20441","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2026-05-12T09:22:45Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG"],"title_canon_sha256":"c1dbfc69cd49ebd8b87aaa523e419bfb9e38898becc8b6bb80ab147ef7b590f4","abstract_canon_sha256":"0e9a19c864b9d96262cf53050293f83d28a8db1496c48511788d6306ac7daadb"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"84fccd0389db3df277fbc1ab86cbfa8bb5cb46d3c53f65a0e4ffbbb57b86e5f2","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15.643233Z","signature_b64":"hlJbXksIhEErLnWLVfqlkb8naiLxGXiLiLOsb/kDRJR/R0sKNiEtuSp8UJIoT+uwu6iNJKIToyxHDiGRb5wEAQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"84fccd0389db3df277fbc1ab86cbfa8bb5cb46d3c53f65a0e4ffbbb57b86e5f2","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15.642301Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15.642301Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2607.20441","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"jUMja3pFCvcjMr6n62zmh7NmL+S7M1E6JxG+kVZEapxX64jBX/FA5/xyKzUoaZTcGnf1+mIZEOIEiJE9Sa9HAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-05T09:57:18.736965Z"},"content_sha256":"8302115c8c3bfdfe13ba88c1c0b831f0ee2e97c38525164b34451fdc3658f4d3","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:8302115c8c3bfdfe13ba88c1c0b831f0ee2e97c38525164b34451fdc3658f4d3"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Belief Propagation in LLM World Models: Measuring Strategic Information Bias with Prediction Markets","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"cs.CL","authors_text":"Anton Polishko, Artur Kiulian, Dmytro Zamriy, Kostiantyn Kozlov, Mykola Khandoga, Yevhen Kostiuk, Yurii Filipchuk","submitted_at":"2026-05-12T09:22:45Z","abstract_excerpt":"Every information ecosystem produces beliefs that shape strategic decisions. Both human analysts and AI systems inherit the blind spots of their information sources. We show that LLMs, combined with prediction markets, function as a calibrated instrument for measuring how far ecosystem-induced beliefs deviate from an external reference: LLMs extract the beliefs a text corpus implies, and prediction market price trajectories, anchored at resolution by realised outcomes, provide the calibration reference against which to quantify the deviation.\n  We isolate the bias contribution of specific text"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.20441","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.20441/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"A7NxzupDsCi6zYwfxDL0DrYUdysse7jhQEoQq0hE5LexDilBo/vo+1/QMy/oBzNAf6Q6A/+etFFAK3BtvD2TCg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-05T09:57:18.737535Z"},"content_sha256":"fcae466bd41900437e0139ac36ee5c4422e48721bed1e8b615fd10203801b24e","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:fcae466bd41900437e0139ac36ee5c4422e48721bed1e8b615fd10203801b24e"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-05T09:57:18Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:QT6M2A4J3M67E573YGVYNS72RO","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"0e9a19c864b9d96262cf53050293f83d28a8db1496c48511788d6306ac7daadb","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2026-05-12T09:22:45Z","title_canon_sha256":"c1dbfc69cd49ebd8b87aaa523e419bfb9e38898becc8b6bb80ab147ef7b590f4"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2607.20441","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2607.20441","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2607.20441v1","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2607.20441","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"QT6M2A4J3M67","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"QT6M2A4J3M67E573","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"QT6M2A4J","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:fcae466bd41900437e0139ac36ee5c4422e48721bed1e8b615fd10203801b24e","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2607.20441/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Every information ecosystem produces beliefs that shape strategic decisions. Both human analysts and AI systems inherit the blind spots of their information sources. We show that LLMs, combined with prediction markets, function as a calibrated instrument for measuring how far ecosystem-induced beliefs deviate from an external reference: LLMs extract the beliefs a text corpus implies, and prediction market price trajectories, anchored at resolution by realised outcomes, provide the calibration reference against which to quantify the deviation.\n  We isolate the bias contribution of specific text","authors_text":"Anton Polishko, Artur Kiulian, Dmytro Zamriy, Kostiantyn Kozlov, Mykola Khandoga, Yevhen Kostiuk, Yurii Filipchuk","cross_cats":["cs.LG"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2026-05-12T09:22:45Z","title":"Belief Propagation in LLM World Models: Measuring Strategic Information Bias with Prediction Markets"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.20441","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:8302115c8c3bfdfe13ba88c1c0b831f0ee2e97c38525164b34451fdc3658f4d3","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"0e9a19c864b9d96262cf53050293f83d28a8db1496c48511788d6306ac7daadb","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2026-05-12T09:22:45Z","title_canon_sha256":"c1dbfc69cd49ebd8b87aaa523e419bfb9e38898becc8b6bb80ab147ef7b590f4"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2607.20441","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"84fccd0389db3df277fbc1ab86cbfa8bb5cb46d3c53f65a0e4ffbbb57b86e5f2","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"84fccd0389db3df277fbc1ab86cbfa8bb5cb46d3c53f65a0e4ffbbb57b86e5f2","first_computed_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15.642301Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15.642301Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"hlJbXksIhEErLnWLVfqlkb8naiLxGXiLiLOsb/kDRJR/R0sKNiEtuSp8UJIoT+uwu6iNJKIToyxHDiGRb5wEAQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-24T00:23:15.643233Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2607.20441","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:8302115c8c3bfdfe13ba88c1c0b831f0ee2e97c38525164b34451fdc3658f4d3","sha256:fcae466bd41900437e0139ac36ee5c4422e48721bed1e8b615fd10203801b24e"],"state_sha256":"8db80aae4ed4afa41ff07e022bb4cb54408aa7b38f71bd1768ea6016f3f58976"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"nc31syzm5iAjaRjF1/MQTVPriW/KUza1EGv7FQZ37kaztgHQeOIzovdOeiZnD67Ur0XCLsoQpfKYbV7dY9yGBw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-05T09:57:18.741249Z","bundle_sha256":"e3828e149d86c10f3b142dabb93905a7884f0af71eddb671018a8f249779e360"}}