{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:QUKFUSWEV35F6WNJTNSQ47F5PD","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"7e52000f55286928f9a2e9a40a2a2680b9454d31dc470a659bcd026f25f08144","cross_cats_sorted":["astro-ph.IM"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"astro-ph.EP","submitted_at":"2026-02-06T02:19:47Z","title_canon_sha256":"06a8fe481448ac5db2b3dbad136c7121423b31c0f39e866495e83646932d2e7e"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2602.06314","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2602.06314","created_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2602.06314v2","created_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2602.06314","created_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"QUKFUSWEV35F","created_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"QUKFUSWEV35F6WNJ","created_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"QUKFUSWE","created_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:52dfb430e32b52ff1b86d33e9c7ac1269340ad3dcd6e5153df75a8c3ac6b6b99","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"attestation":"unclaimed","claim_id":"C1","kind":"strongest_claim","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","text":"We predict that the LSST will discover 8 +/- 2 imminent impactors over its nominal 10 year survey, at the low end of previous estimations. However, we predict these objects to be discovered 4 days pre-impact, substantially earlier than the current average."},{"attestation":"unclaimed","claim_id":"C2","kind":"weakest_assumption","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","text":"That the sample of 216 real fireballs from the last decade is representative of the metre-scale impactor population LSST will encounter, and that the modified linking algorithm will perform as modeled for fast-moving objects without significant false positives or misses."},{"attestation":"unclaimed","claim_id":"C3","kind":"one_line_summary","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","text":"Simulations of real past impactors predict LSST will discover 8 +/- 2 imminent impactors over 10 years at 4 days pre-impact on average, lower rate but earlier than prior estimates."},{"attestation":"unclaimed","claim_id":"C4","kind":"headline","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","text":"LSST simulations with real fireballs predict eight imminent impactors discovered four days before impact over a 10-year survey."}],"snapshot_sha256":"485c5e81b5da3f2ac29277426e1cbcad9a36efa1c6e75ac66d52132b26b24c61"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2602.06314/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"As of mid-2026, 11 objects have been discovered prior to impacting the Earth, with warning times between 2 - 20 hours. Using real metre-sized Earth impactors from the last decade, we ask the question: ``If the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) had been operating over the last decade, how many imminent impactors would it have observed and discovered pre-impact, and how early would these discoveries have been?'' We use the LSST Solar System Survey Simulator Sorcha and a population of real fireballs observed by orbital sensors over the last decade to investigate w","authors_text":"Hadrien A. R. Devillepoix, Michael A. Frazer, Sophie E. Deam","cross_cats":["astro-ph.IM"],"headline":"LSST simulations with real fireballs predict eight imminent impactors discovered four days before impact over a 10-year survey.","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"astro-ph.EP","submitted_at":"2026-02-06T02:19:47Z","title":"Simulated LSST Observations of Real Metre-scale Imminent Impactors"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2602.06314","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":"2026-05-16T07:01:20.965817Z","id":"009e03d7-6acc-43c3-b010-d8cf6db8deeb","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"one_line_summary":"Simulations of real past impactors predict LSST will discover 8 +/- 2 imminent impactors over 10 years at 4 days pre-impact on average, lower rate but earlier than prior estimates.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","pith_extraction_headline":"LSST simulations with real fireballs predict eight imminent impactors discovered four days before impact over a 10-year survey.","strongest_claim":"We predict that the LSST will discover 8 +/- 2 imminent impactors over its nominal 10 year survey, at the low end of previous estimations. However, we predict these objects to be discovered 4 days pre-impact, substantially earlier than the current average.","weakest_assumption":"That the sample of 216 real fireballs from the last decade is representative of the metre-scale impactor population LSST will encounter, and that the modified linking algorithm will perform as modeled for fast-moving objects without significant false positives or misses."}},"verdict_id":"009e03d7-6acc-43c3-b010-d8cf6db8deeb"}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:790da6e100f80adae589fcca6a41b562e77dbc68dd2b443a14cd9084126e14f6","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"7e52000f55286928f9a2e9a40a2a2680b9454d31dc470a659bcd026f25f08144","cross_cats_sorted":["astro-ph.IM"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"astro-ph.EP","submitted_at":"2026-02-06T02:19:47Z","title_canon_sha256":"06a8fe481448ac5db2b3dbad136c7121423b31c0f39e866495e83646932d2e7e"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2602.06314","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"85145a4ac4aefa5f59a99b650e7cbd78c321f636f31ba37b96b418a4ab37da62","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"85145a4ac4aefa5f59a99b650e7cbd78c321f636f31ba37b96b418a4ab37da62","first_computed_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24.973807Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24.973807Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"WsFeb7B2htOnBwX9peJUXnU75FLR16TkI/uNAGGHcMctltqgxWVgFH34YQEGUPDGp7wx0aOAou6E2RchLsvtBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-20T14:03:24.974273Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2602.06314","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:790da6e100f80adae589fcca6a41b562e77dbc68dd2b443a14cd9084126e14f6","sha256:52dfb430e32b52ff1b86d33e9c7ac1269340ad3dcd6e5153df75a8c3ac6b6b99"],"state_sha256":"7a97717aab701fe4dc19ff95756a4ce2b3ebd61a51ac450418f5968085a88eb4"}