{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2016:QUMFQL5I57Q7JOVVGUZ4FGVJO5","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b7a4bed1e350a335d44bb1f60c892dbeb21026152b4372b6aa56ec209639fd3d","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"astro-ph.SR","submitted_at":"2016-06-06T09:48:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"c88a49d3f74e155826b7960291283aa50035c5427de1d6788f6410587690c829"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1606.01675","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1606.01675","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:12:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1606.01675v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:12:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1606.01675","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:12:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"QUMFQL5I57Q7","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"QUMFQL5I57Q7JOVV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:41Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"QUMFQL5I","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:30:41Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:70e62d3162bc453eafca25af88595ebbc513b060ecaeef2f7339eb154f4b3c26","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:12:53Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the predictions collected by the NOAA/SEC prediction panel, using observed data up to October 2010. The aim of the present paper is to give a quantitative evaluation, a posteriori, of the performances of these prediction methods using a specific global error, updated on a monthly basis, which is a measure of the global performance on the predicted shape (both amplitu","authors_text":"Stefano Sello","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"astro-ph.SR","submitted_at":"2016-06-06T09:48:13Z","title":"Solar cycle full-shape predictions: a global error evaluation for cycle 24"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1606.01675","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:75be5b12da5c294ef5f9367e960eda4e4f3cabab204c4efc73985d1251e9a3f3","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:12:53Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b7a4bed1e350a335d44bb1f60c892dbeb21026152b4372b6aa56ec209639fd3d","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"astro-ph.SR","submitted_at":"2016-06-06T09:48:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"c88a49d3f74e155826b7960291283aa50035c5427de1d6788f6410587690c829"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1606.01675","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"8518582fa8efe1f4bab53533c29aa9774c77d7711d2b7027c86341e303373d32","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"8518582fa8efe1f4bab53533c29aa9774c77d7711d2b7027c86341e303373d32","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:12:53.811098Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:12:53.811098Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"5afr9qbOJET3/J7XDu7ThPUj4R2nimrL+Ddd9oRB1BX1qcMYEveKJZp74ertkTzesmuyrMeLAi6AptgBW42CBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:12:53.811443Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1606.01675","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:75be5b12da5c294ef5f9367e960eda4e4f3cabab204c4efc73985d1251e9a3f3","sha256:70e62d3162bc453eafca25af88595ebbc513b060ecaeef2f7339eb154f4b3c26"],"state_sha256":"e82551372797f978bc0d5f7b68dfa683a7aa305ccea483c1fdf6524c64fff133"}