{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6","short_pith_number":"pith:R4TODZXP","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1706.08881","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T14:35:36Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.pop-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"bff44de7830d7030a10ae9ed30beefd3d196d76e605fe6c90356e3fdfdc67507","abstract_canon_sha256":"369ae093a254f1b78901b284401ecb3c5c1615ccd99c29b96542c3726917d692"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"8f26e1e6efa82cf6c318b2aa9e9e9537be23360bb157d0ac6ce6c02fd7bdfe50","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1706.08881","version":3},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1706.08881","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1706.08881v3","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1706.08881","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"R4TODZXPVAWP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:39Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"R4TODZXPVAWPNQYY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:39Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"R4TODZXP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:39Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1706.08881","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T14:35:36Z","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.pop-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"bff44de7830d7030a10ae9ed30beefd3d196d76e605fe6c90356e3fdfdc67507","abstract_canon_sha256":"369ae093a254f1b78901b284401ecb3c5c1615ccd99c29b96542c3726917d692"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"8f26e1e6efa82cf6c318b2aa9e9e9537be23360bb157d0ac6ce6c02fd7bdfe50","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47.212530Z","signature_b64":"BuKGzyV1Cywsg4minX9POnhkDgm7sbvu/IEtPum7CZ/r0vtOg8k4onfqk2f5HHbbvYie0ZpjxQSG5OFsQPefAw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"8f26e1e6efa82cf6c318b2aa9e9e9537be23360bb157d0ac6ce6c02fd7bdfe50","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47.211953Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47.211953Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1706.08881","source_version":3,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Tue+V6Q1NVZHdJqbM6taPIWONmWsSfiRlK90/jkjUl8wgwwan3UFHF+h+qDwQOoPo5QW5Ekz/hf3s68BIRysDg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T18:36:45.200672Z"},"content_sha256":"2cfb74ccd47cff22970b59ada2fc5475ea1d5dc8ca1422243fd582c795d4ec50","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:2cfb74ccd47cff22970b59ada2fc5475ea1d5dc8ca1422243fd582c795d4ec50"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.pop-ph"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Joshua C. Chang","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T14:35:36Z","abstract_excerpt":"Consider the problem of modeling memory effects in discrete-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains. This paper explores cross validation and information criteria as proxies for a model's predictive accuracy. Our objective is to select, from data, the number of prior states of recent history upon which a trajectory is statistically dependent. Through simulations, I evaluate these criteria in the case where data are drawn from systems with fixed orders of history, noting trends in the relative performance of the criteria. As a real-world illustrative example of these methods, this m"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1706.08881","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"EBRfTlmKsS9cWZ2dU2fVNX/3xI5NjyKsJcHl493pbk+yi1vocjDesDdoGANoxZSSHiESfcByD+S23fxH6sNJCQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T18:36:45.201407Z"},"content_sha256":"21477df78178bfb448b2df5910c1dd9e3b7e8d0523fb8ec46ff61f55f10e7b07","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:21477df78178bfb448b2df5910c1dd9e3b7e8d0523fb8ec46ff61f55f10e7b07"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-07T18:36:45Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:R4TODZXPVAWPNQYYWKVJ5HUVG6","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"369ae093a254f1b78901b284401ecb3c5c1615ccd99c29b96542c3726917d692","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.pop-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T14:35:36Z","title_canon_sha256":"bff44de7830d7030a10ae9ed30beefd3d196d76e605fe6c90356e3fdfdc67507"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1706.08881","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1706.08881","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1706.08881v3","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1706.08881","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"R4TODZXPVAWP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:39Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"R4TODZXPVAWPNQYY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:39Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"R4TODZXP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:39Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:21477df78178bfb448b2df5910c1dd9e3b7e8d0523fb8ec46ff61f55f10e7b07","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Consider the problem of modeling memory effects in discrete-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains. This paper explores cross validation and information criteria as proxies for a model's predictive accuracy. Our objective is to select, from data, the number of prior states of recent history upon which a trajectory is statistically dependent. Through simulations, I evaluate these criteria in the case where data are drawn from systems with fixed orders of history, noting trends in the relative performance of the criteria. As a real-world illustrative example of these methods, this m","authors_text":"Joshua C. Chang","cross_cats":["physics.pop-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T14:35:36Z","title":"Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1706.08881","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:2cfb74ccd47cff22970b59ada2fc5475ea1d5dc8ca1422243fd582c795d4ec50","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"369ae093a254f1b78901b284401ecb3c5c1615ccd99c29b96542c3726917d692","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.pop-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2017-06-26T14:35:36Z","title_canon_sha256":"bff44de7830d7030a10ae9ed30beefd3d196d76e605fe6c90356e3fdfdc67507"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1706.08881","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"canonical_sha256":"8f26e1e6efa82cf6c318b2aa9e9e9537be23360bb157d0ac6ce6c02fd7bdfe50","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"8f26e1e6efa82cf6c318b2aa9e9e9537be23360bb157d0ac6ce6c02fd7bdfe50","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47.211953Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47.211953Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"BuKGzyV1Cywsg4minX9POnhkDgm7sbvu/IEtPum7CZ/r0vtOg8k4onfqk2f5HHbbvYie0ZpjxQSG5OFsQPefAw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:50:47.212530Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1706.08881","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":3}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:2cfb74ccd47cff22970b59ada2fc5475ea1d5dc8ca1422243fd582c795d4ec50","sha256:21477df78178bfb448b2df5910c1dd9e3b7e8d0523fb8ec46ff61f55f10e7b07"],"state_sha256":"7ed1c92c4d8d33363b41f95b4712127019c23535df602b28e9924ef9b48a1bc8"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"I40SVZFpmahf2Nk8affYyNdPi9o5kBMqNm22QKi8bwc+3PeOAH2Q00v+/DpxhADZ9Nol4QoMhQwdVTD7osWCAw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T18:36:45.205405Z","bundle_sha256":"c8716e682735ed4670646d28c51456a8b3ff876e4646860ec1c48ffbeeb43a66"}}