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An extreme distortion of the Van Allen belt arising from the Halloween solar storm in 2003.Nature, 432(7019):878–881, 2004","work_id":"f882cbc9-1e20-4e46-8d30-8837bdb004e6","year":2003},{"cited_arxiv_id":"","doi":"","is_internal_anchor":false,"ref_index":5,"title":"Lai, Kerri Cahoy, Whitney Lohmeyer, Ashley Carlton, Raichelle Aniceto, and Joseph Minow","work_id":"150a8718-8e6a-49d3-a10c-33c72849e83a","year":2018}],"snapshot_sha256":"90539586652c580448b09a4e88a84395bc3a677426daa4f289f1a32dd7627848"},"source":{"id":"2605.15752","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":"2026-05-19T19:35:25.387311Z","id":"94cc06c6-d83b-481f-bcf3-c34e794b1e7f","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"one_line_summary":"Hybrid TimesFM plus ridge regression on covariates forecasts 1-MeV electron flux with average R² of 0.9 on out-of-sample 2024 data, outperforming linear regression, CNN, LSTM and Transformer models.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","pith_extraction_headline":"A hybrid TimesFM foundation model with covariates forecasts 1-MeV electron flux in the outer radiation belt at an average R2 of 0.9 on 2024 data.","strongest_claim":"Using data from January-June 2024 as an out-of-sample test, we find that the hybrid application of TimesFM, named TimesFM+Cov, yields the best results with an average R2 of 0.9 across L-shells, compared to an average R2 under 0.78 for all other models.","weakest_assumption":"The 2024 test interval is statistically similar to the 2013-2023 training distribution and that no major unmeasured drivers (for example, sudden changes in magnetospheric configuration) dominate the forecast errors at higher L-shells."}},"verdict_id":"94cc06c6-d83b-481f-bcf3-c34e794b1e7f"}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:550ae8e2ed884a5c7bb7cdd7b585e498fc450ec116de5ace8c1b4ae9986e260a","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:01:16Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"9f63572c509cad024965d2947d33afc4991b0acc47113fc4c6f7b148583b10b5","cross_cats_sorted":["astro-ph.EP"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"astro-ph.IM","submitted_at":"2026-05-15T09:13:02Z","title_canon_sha256":"e3b9c797a0638fd0ea7f84fed7a739ff9360a5a4189b08a9ce3003a16f272af8"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2605.15752","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"8f8f9d1ad802170c3868cfad92415471d249d462cbdd798d0b10af5dfb8e3bbc","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"8f8f9d1ad802170c3868cfad92415471d249d462cbdd798d0b10af5dfb8e3bbc","first_computed_at":"2026-05-20T00:01:16.306826Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-20T00:01:16.306826Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"nu7K2vsXMLgUQxwFgj3zMI4nVyKl0KvdbHvOe7Jk7CCLHRP0v18lTFEPTRftcB0WUUbTWKR8MyqdvwNZTk0VAw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-20T00:01:16.307677Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2605.15752","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:550ae8e2ed884a5c7bb7cdd7b585e498fc450ec116de5ace8c1b4ae9986e260a","sha256:73d8089391c3e36ba3854ae4a9af07bbbe0d953badd2f2f1afecf9640822710f"],"state_sha256":"353c03c07a09e8de918cc2f8c1e80c04772a59691a21ad5b0fc5fcb7d4be956a"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"bRsaMX5O1wgDbGNxfutaWbdhdjwrbWPzpEGSJ9I969nVksezjcALhcEBRKQTsavZJwGlxqWfutYSIR5KKh8eAg==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-29T18:58:44.354362Z","bundle_sha256":"e4de08616dab1882183c5c4db9e1110a74adf518f915c2d75b252d8f85904269"}}