{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2018:RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX","short_pith_number":"pith:RCST2ILM","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"88a53d216c14c30969f47489a683de65d544f064f17b292d5a11582ba1b52baa","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1811.12692","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"On the generation of probabilistic forecasts from deterministic models","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.space-ph","authors_text":"Enrico Camporeale, Jacob Bortnik, Oleksiy Agapitov, Xiangning Chu","submitted_at":"2018-11-30T09:59:20Z","abstract_excerpt":"Most of the methods that produce space weather forecasts are based on deterministic models. In order to generate a probabilistic forecast, a model needs to be run several times sampling the input parameter space, in order to generate an ensemble from which the distribution of outputs can be inferred. However, ensemble simulations are costly and often preclude the possibility of real-time forecasting. We introduce a simple and robust method to generate uncertainties from deterministic models, that does not require ensemble simulations. The method is based on the simple consideration that a prob"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1811.12692","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.space-ph","submitted_at":"2018-11-30T09:59:20Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"743d078f9cb2b35dbc352f50a085115c20a841a1cacdec811fb01696726a2dcb","abstract_canon_sha256":"6b3c183947683c5e53f5c27bb4d02f890efb33458ec68e8dd1fb49a7129dfc4a"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:29.303091Z","signature_b64":"3GuL0EmlZrs6nB1YT0giG6tztJ23Db0i647Y9amFqx+HmhH65QvVbiw/zhrKxWCnMCBhWGI3zRpdXcZEgW9MAw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"88a53d216c14c30969f47489a683de65d544f064f17b292d5a11582ba1b52baa","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:29.302568Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:29.302568Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"On the generation of probabilistic forecasts from deterministic models","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.space-ph","authors_text":"Enrico Camporeale, Jacob Bortnik, Oleksiy Agapitov, Xiangning Chu","submitted_at":"2018-11-30T09:59:20Z","abstract_excerpt":"Most of the methods that produce space weather forecasts are based on deterministic models. In order to generate a probabilistic forecast, a model needs to be run several times sampling the input parameter space, in order to generate an ensemble from which the distribution of outputs can be inferred. However, ensemble simulations are costly and often preclude the possibility of real-time forecasting. We introduce a simple and robust method to generate uncertainties from deterministic models, that does not require ensemble simulations. The method is based on the simple consideration that a prob"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1811.12692","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1811.12692","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:29.302648+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1811.12692v1","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:29.302648+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1811.12692","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:29.302648+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"RCST2ILMCTBQ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:50.500415+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"RCST2ILMCTBQS2PU","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:50.500415+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"RCST2ILM","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:50.500415+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX","json":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/RCST2ILM"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/RCST2ILM","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1811.12692&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/RCST2ILMCTBQS2PUOSE2NA66MX/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:29.302648+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-17T23:47:29.302648+00:00"}