{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB","short_pith_number":"pith:RQBVRKCO","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2411.12036","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2024-11-18T20:16:24Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","econ.EM"],"title_canon_sha256":"c38a5fb074592783772d5b568f78e9c4927b9df26827e8548c3150fcb3c46e3c","abstract_canon_sha256":"8c73ffa7dea2a7d147ef8971f019bb3f7bd50fa7d6fad03465561ef14931c5aa"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"8c0358a84eda0dc9e7cc90687861af10475cdc1a2b47630314685593b7c44ae9","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2411.12036","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2411.12036","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2411.12036v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2411.12036","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"RQBVRKCO3IG4","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6M","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"RQBVRKCO","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2411.12036","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2024-11-18T20:16:24Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","econ.EM"],"title_canon_sha256":"c38a5fb074592783772d5b568f78e9c4927b9df26827e8548c3150fcb3c46e3c","abstract_canon_sha256":"8c73ffa7dea2a7d147ef8971f019bb3f7bd50fa7d6fad03465561ef14931c5aa"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"8c0358a84eda0dc9e7cc90687861af10475cdc1a2b47630314685593b7c44ae9","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32.884590Z","signature_b64":"dIC/Z9C9ZLqx9K53HTaTPcskq/YZq62rAQK8ASwbneUqohW5/+DPyegV/k3/PTGkVYHBZaZk6DYJuj9iOHkkDQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"8c0358a84eda0dc9e7cc90687861af10475cdc1a2b47630314685593b7c44ae9","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32.884102Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32.884102Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2411.12036","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"IUDIKstI0jf3CTR63OFH5dVoDwAIBxhNEuoYb9v+0CR+ZtVLoOdqzT/BGeAZhBRO7k5xeFvo5pecTMwPYMoJCQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-10T16:16:41.948032Z"},"content_sha256":"9be0b036deb959f6ce1d94d48d41a53754841b14ae6a05cdd2329c02d68d4742","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:9be0b036deb959f6ce1d94d48d41a53754841b14ae6a05cdd2329c02d68d4742"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Prediction-Guided Active Experiments","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","econ.EM"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"David Simchi-Levi, Hongyu Chen, Ruicheng Ao","submitted_at":"2024-11-18T20:16:24Z","abstract_excerpt":"In this work, we introduce a new framework for active experimentation, the Prediction-Guided Active Experiment (PGAE), which leverages predictions from an existing machine learning model to guide sampling and experimentation. Specifically, at each time step, an experimental unit is sampled according to a designated sampling distribution, and the actual outcome is observed based on an experimental probability. Otherwise, only a prediction for the outcome is available. We begin by analyzing the non-adaptive case, where full information on the joint distribution of the predictor and the actual ou"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2411.12036","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2411.12036/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"f20mEd8OUCG/b4SwyLjP+bvy/PZldEow7tpHrvTcRnXZOHK9EMM/ciM/Lw43FWlEB6TnlRt0MJD6azFkN2AyAQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-10T16:16:41.948549Z"},"content_sha256":"918c473d166190a593e7ad64048f4bfdb5ddc7b445427a72250ad621e708cdb5","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:918c473d166190a593e7ad64048f4bfdb5ddc7b445427a72250ad621e708cdb5"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-10T16:16:41Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6MSBUHQYNPCB","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"8c73ffa7dea2a7d147ef8971f019bb3f7bd50fa7d6fad03465561ef14931c5aa","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","econ.EM"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2024-11-18T20:16:24Z","title_canon_sha256":"c38a5fb074592783772d5b568f78e9c4927b9df26827e8548c3150fcb3c46e3c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2411.12036","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2411.12036","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2411.12036v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2411.12036","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"RQBVRKCO3IG4","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"RQBVRKCO3IG4TZ6M","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"RQBVRKCO","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:918c473d166190a593e7ad64048f4bfdb5ddc7b445427a72250ad621e708cdb5","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2411.12036/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"In this work, we introduce a new framework for active experimentation, the Prediction-Guided Active Experiment (PGAE), which leverages predictions from an existing machine learning model to guide sampling and experimentation. Specifically, at each time step, an experimental unit is sampled according to a designated sampling distribution, and the actual outcome is observed based on an experimental probability. Otherwise, only a prediction for the outcome is available. We begin by analyzing the non-adaptive case, where full information on the joint distribution of the predictor and the actual ou","authors_text":"David Simchi-Levi, Hongyu Chen, Ruicheng Ao","cross_cats":["cs.LG","econ.EM"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2024-11-18T20:16:24Z","title":"Prediction-Guided Active Experiments"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2411.12036","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:9be0b036deb959f6ce1d94d48d41a53754841b14ae6a05cdd2329c02d68d4742","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"8c73ffa7dea2a7d147ef8971f019bb3f7bd50fa7d6fad03465561ef14931c5aa","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","econ.EM"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2024-11-18T20:16:24Z","title_canon_sha256":"c38a5fb074592783772d5b568f78e9c4927b9df26827e8548c3150fcb3c46e3c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2411.12036","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"8c0358a84eda0dc9e7cc90687861af10475cdc1a2b47630314685593b7c44ae9","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"8c0358a84eda0dc9e7cc90687861af10475cdc1a2b47630314685593b7c44ae9","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32.884102Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32.884102Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"dIC/Z9C9ZLqx9K53HTaTPcskq/YZq62rAQK8ASwbneUqohW5/+DPyegV/k3/PTGkVYHBZaZk6DYJuj9iOHkkDQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T09:38:32.884590Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2411.12036","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:9be0b036deb959f6ce1d94d48d41a53754841b14ae6a05cdd2329c02d68d4742","sha256:918c473d166190a593e7ad64048f4bfdb5ddc7b445427a72250ad621e708cdb5"],"state_sha256":"24ab0fcfa85ab7e7b498e603486270dd6e26e5f0cee41be0a6a0af04e3e8ce2e"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"rJwrTDvJXD/4SE8u1p7I0QW0qXo9zAzMRZIWfReJKVFtjIUj2TuVJvw1+nzY+pCfNYZMOCp+tbTbVMbYyKeaCw==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-10T16:16:41.954286Z","bundle_sha256":"f86ffa279b6795c3cfe3b47a296dbe797164dc738d3da4dd91b8573c8be834d3"}}