{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46","short_pith_number":"pith:RZV3TQIS","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1703.09138","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2017-03-27T15:14:31Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"6610a5d0d75c70f761ab47ea8e5fa0c6a8f69b32b720e1ab825947e7511436ae","abstract_canon_sha256":"b2e7964a785f9be1c08ae5f62a4220e363641a4e2c1cfdd6a3857350a48e6ae7"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"8e6bb9c112449d8499454c5fff6885e79e855f5fa7cec3d047a947e810e0c2d7","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1703.09138","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1703.09138","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1703.09138v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1703.09138","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"RZV3TQISISOY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"RZV3TQISISOYJGKF","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"RZV3TQIS","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:43Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1703.09138","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2017-03-27T15:14:31Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"6610a5d0d75c70f761ab47ea8e5fa0c6a8f69b32b720e1ab825947e7511436ae","abstract_canon_sha256":"b2e7964a785f9be1c08ae5f62a4220e363641a4e2c1cfdd6a3857350a48e6ae7"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"8e6bb9c112449d8499454c5fff6885e79e855f5fa7cec3d047a947e810e0c2d7","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45.465284Z","signature_b64":"g3Hs6/+NeV0RiqOENTinNAttool/kqiiniN0es+NDiNl6QI7/xRxUxr4zq9XzvBSGBKCYNLvKdve2Oy3troZDw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"8e6bb9c112449d8499454c5fff6885e79e855f5fa7cec3d047a947e810e0c2d7","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45.464692Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45.464692Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1703.09138","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Wazk76lRvV2n48TPOjHFi6IAyrO8QsHFO6l6EQCwhyTWhoAqkKcKZvKrdbj6eXBsyR3ROE5KLGEjU59e7zU3Dg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-25T17:04:11.443413Z"},"content_sha256":"6e4fa0697118268380f64309402fd52534299e9e0a04b7a4a1706d4d29f001f7","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:6e4fa0697118268380f64309402fd52534299e9e0a04b7a4a1706d4d29f001f7"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2017:RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Forecasting the magnitude and onset of El Nino based on climate network","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","authors_text":"Armin Bunde, Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng, Shlomo Havlin, Yosef Ashkenazy","submitted_at":"2017-03-27T15:14:31Z","abstract_excerpt":"El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious consequences in many aspects of human life. However, the forecasting of the onset and in particular the magnitude of El Nino are still not accurate, at least more than half a year in advance. Here, we introduce a new forecasting index based on network links representing the similarity of low frequency temporal temperature anomaly variations between different sites in the El Nino 3.4 region. We find that significant upw"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1703.09138","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"kjxu7I5zL90cZDu7i68LYPdJ3afnYlZL+FL3X+N4V82DClvGrD6oFk1N4E9JrgKJYckUYxQChtkDBp37dv2XAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-25T17:04:11.444101Z"},"content_sha256":"871ea689415bc160c4253d3f964378a31482027a9e0ea627581fdfedf103218b","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:871ea689415bc160c4253d3f964378a31482027a9e0ea627581fdfedf103218b"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-05-25T17:04:11Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2017:RZV3TQISISOYJGKFJRP762EF46","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b2e7964a785f9be1c08ae5f62a4220e363641a4e2c1cfdd6a3857350a48e6ae7","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2017-03-27T15:14:31Z","title_canon_sha256":"6610a5d0d75c70f761ab47ea8e5fa0c6a8f69b32b720e1ab825947e7511436ae"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1703.09138","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1703.09138","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1703.09138v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1703.09138","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"RZV3TQISISOY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"RZV3TQISISOYJGKF","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"RZV3TQIS","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:31:43Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:871ea689415bc160c4253d3f964378a31482027a9e0ea627581fdfedf103218b","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious consequences in many aspects of human life. However, the forecasting of the onset and in particular the magnitude of El Nino are still not accurate, at least more than half a year in advance. Here, we introduce a new forecasting index based on network links representing the similarity of low frequency temporal temperature anomaly variations between different sites in the El Nino 3.4 region. We find that significant upw","authors_text":"Armin Bunde, Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng, Shlomo Havlin, Yosef Ashkenazy","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2017-03-27T15:14:31Z","title":"Forecasting the magnitude and onset of El Nino based on climate network"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1703.09138","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:6e4fa0697118268380f64309402fd52534299e9e0a04b7a4a1706d4d29f001f7","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b2e7964a785f9be1c08ae5f62a4220e363641a4e2c1cfdd6a3857350a48e6ae7","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","submitted_at":"2017-03-27T15:14:31Z","title_canon_sha256":"6610a5d0d75c70f761ab47ea8e5fa0c6a8f69b32b720e1ab825947e7511436ae"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1703.09138","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"8e6bb9c112449d8499454c5fff6885e79e855f5fa7cec3d047a947e810e0c2d7","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"8e6bb9c112449d8499454c5fff6885e79e855f5fa7cec3d047a947e810e0c2d7","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45.464692Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45.464692Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"g3Hs6/+NeV0RiqOENTinNAttool/kqiiniN0es+NDiNl6QI7/xRxUxr4zq9XzvBSGBKCYNLvKdve2Oy3troZDw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:16:45.465284Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1703.09138","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:6e4fa0697118268380f64309402fd52534299e9e0a04b7a4a1706d4d29f001f7","sha256:871ea689415bc160c4253d3f964378a31482027a9e0ea627581fdfedf103218b"],"state_sha256":"913363fbfd9993d0ca9d54d941e981d4db6060596b481d747ef42e1fabe81293"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"z9Y7tvxzprBfq/W4xlWXhX/eq6hTX5Mfd5OA2PEtJ6xHIYWgV/XhM4foHv3VpMbLK1CL+fRdFT+GjcJfvjvoBA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-25T17:04:11.447895Z","bundle_sha256":"923ccb6b0bd545f14c5f05dc9088aa0915969c8897b5b5ce8add500000ac9e87"}}