{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:SMZT2LP45EUJCEFWIBVTLT6OEI","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"1ce621c5362e3d3527a3840b777417377f61e89aaab38fb7c1f3ea5afe8b9186","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CY","physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.SI","submitted_at":"2014-02-27T19:40:02Z","title_canon_sha256":"1c051652c0e03ee01a97cf1a083c27d091f1e2191b3642f613cbbbe116235c98"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1402.7035","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1402.7035","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:57:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1402.7035v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:57:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1402.7035","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:57:35Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"SMZT2LP45EUJ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:49Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"SMZT2LP45EUJCEFW","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:49Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"SMZT2LP4","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:49Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:f857bf291906e53ef9affadc5ef19c386488f222b3ab992ba0d936627feea738","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:57:35Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the uptick and downtick of incidents during the June 2013 protests in Brazil. We outline the system a","authors_text":"Achla Marathe, Andy Doyle, Anil Vullikanti, Aravind Srinivasan, Bert Huang, Chang-Tien Lu, Chris Ackermann, Chris Kuhlman, David Mares, Dipak Gupta, Feng Chen, Gizem Korkmaz, Graham Katz, Ilya Zavorin, Jaime Arredondo, Jim Ford, Jose Cadena, Khoa Trinh, Kristen Summers, Liang Zhao, Lise Getoor, Naren Ramakrishnan, Nathan Self, Parang Saraf, Patrick Butler, Rupinder Khandpur, Sathappan Muthiah, Ting Hua, Wei Wang, Youssef Fayed","cross_cats":["cs.CY","physics.soc-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.SI","submitted_at":"2014-02-27T19:40:02Z","title":"'Beating the news' with EMBERS: Forecasting Civil Unrest using Open Source Indicators"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1402.7035","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:aa5a0259f8d305d1ba29c3ba0d6a41c1c7bd2d786d9ca125850edac6dd3c2189","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:57:35Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"1ce621c5362e3d3527a3840b777417377f61e89aaab38fb7c1f3ea5afe8b9186","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CY","physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.SI","submitted_at":"2014-02-27T19:40:02Z","title_canon_sha256":"1c051652c0e03ee01a97cf1a083c27d091f1e2191b3642f613cbbbe116235c98"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1402.7035","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"93333d2dfce9289110b6406b35cfce223bda910cf533ad5b68792fcd5bf3ce15","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"93333d2dfce9289110b6406b35cfce223bda910cf533ad5b68792fcd5bf3ce15","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:57:35.133570Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:57:35.133570Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"scQbXu6oh3DuUhFoBcRMopBBrmwyPs/a4Yj8pGPSx+TLZj8qyMntvHhBX3kkDnNfi4wNhihy+nmzB0fwcQXfDA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:57:35.134133Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1402.7035","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:aa5a0259f8d305d1ba29c3ba0d6a41c1c7bd2d786d9ca125850edac6dd3c2189","sha256:f857bf291906e53ef9affadc5ef19c386488f222b3ab992ba0d936627feea738"],"state_sha256":"1ed806b5acbeb7b07c05218b1b236267779c6b7f61fdfe8a62241a0f717111d2"}