{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2019:SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3","short_pith_number":"pith:SOFTDZSN","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"938b31e64d04284e796b0919902fdb16c3e884af3f2a1848a7dcfcc0f4a8e14e","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1901.11123","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","authors_text":"Alexander Budzier, Andi Garavaglia, Andreas Leed, Bent Flyvbjerg","submitted_at":"2019-01-13T18:20:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of an overrun above 202%. Based on a reference class of 200 past, comparable projects, risk of schedule overrun was found to be 104% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of overrun above 104%. Cost risk and schedule risk are both substantial for nuclear waste storage projects."},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1901.11123","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","submitted_at":"2019-01-13T18:20:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"0526bdb520bb33da206397c5c783871df044a52675dc685b7766ec2ef6b4dd28","abstract_canon_sha256":"eb857546b0f4b0f73ce0be5fec203a40bc3860e9df602ea3db8eeb6611780a6a"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:55:02.611217Z","signature_b64":"6ZnMwxzr3sdA/Y9WqlzOJqrSgiW3odrmUe75PqUl4nYnCrX0z0yzaKEBTKPJsWuxfwty10BhCoq+zHFOQGmUCw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"938b31e64d04284e796b0919902fdb16c3e884af3f2a1848a7dcfcc0f4a8e14e","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:55:02.610732Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:55:02.610732Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-fin.GN","authors_text":"Alexander Budzier, Andi Garavaglia, Andreas Leed, Bent Flyvbjerg","submitted_at":"2019-01-13T18:20:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of an overrun above 202%. Based on a reference class of 200 past, comparable projects, risk of schedule overrun was found to be 104% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of overrun above 104%. Cost risk and schedule risk are both substantial for nuclear waste storage projects."},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1901.11123","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1901.11123","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:55:02.610806+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1901.11123v1","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:55:02.610806+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1901.11123","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:55:02.610806+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"SOFTDZSNAQUE","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:27.125529+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"SOFTDZSNAQUE46LL","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:27.125529+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"SOFTDZSN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:27.125529+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3","json":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/SOFTDZSN"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/SOFTDZSN","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1901.11123&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/SOFTDZSNAQUE46LLBEMZAL63C3/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:55:02.610806+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-17T23:55:02.610806+00:00"}