{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2015:SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF","short_pith_number":"pith:SPPMUVUB","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"93deca5681b2f04e1239d981d7a0f9495fa01b01421164b887fa88d73c274f63","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1510.00313","version":3},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"Probability-weighted ensembles of U.S. county-level climate projections for climate risk analysis","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"D.J. Rasmussen, Malte Meinshausen, Robert E. Kopp","submitted_at":"2015-10-01T16:52:02Z","abstract_excerpt":"Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, we develop two such methods, Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo Pattern/Residual (MCPR), and apply them to construct joint probability density functions (PDFs) of temperature and precipitation change over the 21st century for every county in the United States. Both methods produce $likely$ (67% probability) temperature and precipitation projections consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's interpret"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1510.00313","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2015-10-01T16:52:02Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"580d88c72d2bbca2b22656a653dd2353c4cf45b5294b112065af4069c12130e1","abstract_canon_sha256":"9e7968b53bc120906ac2bf5215aa12707e268ea140ac2df8f5e3c25fdb384d4c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:31:05.986508Z","signature_b64":"T/N1KfnqJJJZBkfJQS17vaoeLjqDyShDVU2oU2E06iy9kcnjgwROHkiGUs02wrLC/VDzmwkiMfj5mZiYSfQaBg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"93deca5681b2f04e1239d981d7a0f9495fa01b01421164b887fa88d73c274f63","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:31:05.985767Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:31:05.985767Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Probability-weighted ensembles of U.S. county-level climate projections for climate risk analysis","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"D.J. Rasmussen, Malte Meinshausen, Robert E. Kopp","submitted_at":"2015-10-01T16:52:02Z","abstract_excerpt":"Quantitative assessment of climate change risk requires a method for constructing probabilistic time series of changes in physical climate parameters. Here, we develop two such methods, Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) and Monte Carlo Pattern/Residual (MCPR), and apply them to construct joint probability density functions (PDFs) of temperature and precipitation change over the 21st century for every county in the United States. Both methods produce $likely$ (67% probability) temperature and precipitation projections consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's interpret"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1510.00313","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1510.00313","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:31:05.985888+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1510.00313v3","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:31:05.985888+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1510.00313","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:31:05.985888+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"SPPMUVUBWLYE","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:42.218222+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:42.218222+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"SPPMUVUB","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:42.218222+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF","json":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/SPPMUVUB"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/SPPMUVUB","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1510.00313&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/SPPMUVUBWLYE4ERZ3GA5PIHZJF/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:31:05.985888+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-18T01:31:05.985888+00:00"}