{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:ST4UUKNDGKAY4SGL2WOO76OAO2","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"e974cd973332298dfcab4dbe23c4a4af5bb8d9f8d34be467eb94afbb55db8a92","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-08-10T01:29:27Z","title_canon_sha256":"a4ab8ab3fb593f747faded8cc7b913097199ed8227926660e3370630aac9679d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2508.07136","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2508.07136","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2508.07136v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2508.07136","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"ST4UUKNDGKAY","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"ST4UUKNDGKAY4SGL","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"ST4UUKND","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:7507d3b5a24e0d360c7ce9a40776d43bf659d96c575dc2a6f05bbc793099f370","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2508.07136/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We propose a Bayesian forecast combination framework that, for the first time, embeds forward-looking signals, formulated as predictive priors, directly into the time-varying weight-updating process. This approach enables weights to adapt using both historical forecast performance and anticipated future model behavior. We implement the framework with model diversity as the forward-looking signal, yielding the diversity-driven time-varying weights (DTVW) method. Compared with the standard time-varying weights (TVW) approach, DTVW embeds diversity-driven predictive priors that penalize redundanc","authors_text":"Xiaorui Luo, Xue Luo, Yanfei Kang","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-08-10T01:29:27Z","title":"Bayesian Forecast Combination with Predictive Priors via Particle Filtering"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2508.07136","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:06f2c68b7418922c41bc219827204ea87aa07b924959a1cdcc7729505a2823b9","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"e974cd973332298dfcab4dbe23c4a4af5bb8d9f8d34be467eb94afbb55db8a92","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-08-10T01:29:27Z","title_canon_sha256":"a4ab8ab3fb593f747faded8cc7b913097199ed8227926660e3370630aac9679d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2508.07136","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"94f94a29a332818e48cbd59ceff9c076aae2dd64be7bc0f0ba59ef27e1b5f53d","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"94f94a29a332818e48cbd59ceff9c076aae2dd64be7bc0f0ba59ef27e1b5f53d","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34.239668Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34.239668Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"M71ceNntomDYUrW2/gtOl8uXHPDuZ/DuILLDkvsyNRfYBc6seddBKvzVLgd30IyTcoiv6fNSTojYTft29ue7Ag==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:58:34.240105Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2508.07136","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:06f2c68b7418922c41bc219827204ea87aa07b924959a1cdcc7729505a2823b9","sha256:7507d3b5a24e0d360c7ce9a40776d43bf659d96c575dc2a6f05bbc793099f370"],"state_sha256":"79cbe65c1a039134b197be56ebff37f6a14e5b40ea495e8f89f0cc05a1c050c4"}