{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2026:T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C","short_pith_number":"pith:T6CKBGZG","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"9f84a09b264a52a8eed72468ad3d6bd0ba75c0c3b93f20101bdda71cd340dcd2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2605.21316","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"Bitcoin's Power Law: Weak Structure, Strong Forecasts","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.DC"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Carlos Baquero, Raquel Menezes","submitted_at":"2026-05-20T15:46:46Z","abstract_excerpt":"Bitcoin's price has been described as following a power law (PL) in time, $P \\sim t^{\\beta}$ with $\\hat\\beta \\approx 5.7$ over 2010-2026. We test this claim using the Clauset-Shalizi-Newman protocol applied to Bitcoin's tail-relevant distributional series, and develop three principled time-domain adaptations of the protocol. We find that (i) the distributional power law is rejected on UTXO balances and daily |returns|, with lognormal preferred decisively; (ii) the fitted time-domain exponent varies by nearly a factor of three across reasonable shifts of the time origin -- it is not specificati"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2605.21316","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-05-20T15:46:46Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.DC"],"title_canon_sha256":"fe906fdcd9c96649a4124bc0cdc471aa97934d4e6755ade589addfd9b872cd0c","abstract_canon_sha256":"4fbf83e286355680c879d58f3cfa8cb0f3a1c754edb39db6f9b5811796bd5dd7"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854874Z","signature_b64":"yOFvVgO4xWH19aWCm+2g2e18krmyew2isJx24lGkZUPqulncVdggPZU/1sAiBCNfdFxsulH8kGPEYmt6AmAbAg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"9f84a09b264a52a8eed72468ad3d6bd0ba75c0c3b93f20101bdda71cd340dcd2","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854065Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854065Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Bitcoin's Power Law: Weak Structure, Strong Forecasts","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.DC"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Carlos Baquero, Raquel Menezes","submitted_at":"2026-05-20T15:46:46Z","abstract_excerpt":"Bitcoin's price has been described as following a power law (PL) in time, $P \\sim t^{\\beta}$ with $\\hat\\beta \\approx 5.7$ over 2010-2026. We test this claim using the Clauset-Shalizi-Newman protocol applied to Bitcoin's tail-relevant distributional series, and develop three principled time-domain adaptations of the protocol. We find that (i) the distributional power law is rejected on UTXO balances and daily |returns|, with lognormal preferred decisively; (ii) the fitted time-domain exponent varies by nearly a factor of three across reasonable shifts of the time origin -- it is not specificati"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.21316","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.21316/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2605.21316","created_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854210+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2605.21316v1","created_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854210+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2605.21316","created_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854210+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"T6CKBGZGJJJK","created_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854210+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WX","created_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854210+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"T6CKBGZG","created_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854210+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C","json":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/T6CKBGZG"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/T6CKBGZG","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=2605.21316&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/T6CKBGZGJJJKR3WXERUK2PLL2C/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854210+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-21T02:05:28.854210+00:00"}