{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE","short_pith_number":"pith:T6WHEFLK","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1810.05398","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2018-10-12T08:19:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":["q-bio.PE","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"c784d297e8238b05f89b42276b8277318d8fa8e8b2ada4c4290650186ac4bd13","abstract_canon_sha256":"cc7e54c23dad5dd3c59556e8f16f5fd4b5ea6710a15423a9f6e0008ab8e1588c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"9fac72156a6c1ccc8600b23e94a220a106b04cae57bd40eb2f66a7d933beb504","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1810.05398","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1810.05398","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1810.05398v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1810.05398","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"T6WHEFLKNQOM","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQA","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"T6WHEFLK","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:53Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2018:T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1810.05398","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2018-10-12T08:19:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":["q-bio.PE","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"c784d297e8238b05f89b42276b8277318d8fa8e8b2ada4c4290650186ac4bd13","abstract_canon_sha256":"cc7e54c23dad5dd3c59556e8f16f5fd4b5ea6710a15423a9f6e0008ab8e1588c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"9fac72156a6c1ccc8600b23e94a220a106b04cae57bd40eb2f66a7d933beb504","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30.708537Z","signature_b64":"dCmw7cShPuHYo8gAuJiFboEuuVR0guZbUFt1QUuskSeRdL2Ohwt8X9daaCkzfgAJQVok00kkK5e1XyV38A57Cg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"9fac72156a6c1ccc8600b23e94a220a106b04cae57bd40eb2f66a7d933beb504","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30.707951Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30.707951Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1810.05398","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"CmJ/vCMqoZH4n422WPX1qU3+X75CAV0+mH8Fyfm2slE8LPzqJNyGUvQlgdkMgiCbX7GNBD7+QMZmUY2m9+XVDw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T14:41:24.297359Z"},"content_sha256":"cefc809dd8e1dfcfd230d6bfcb75254dfd64848b5ae971018ec3899db7853872","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:cefc809dd8e1dfcfd230d6bfcb75254dfd64848b5ae971018ec3899db7853872"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2018:T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"The good, the bad, and the ugly: Bayesian model selection produces spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-bio.PE","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"math.ST","authors_text":"Tianqi Zhu, Ziheng Yang","submitted_at":"2018-10-12T08:19:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1810.05398","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"2cLdGU9+PXxjP01DA7RAKqdOrPdj/tnlQC1Ndyaj7To7KJdEpvHobdqZwgey2kl8gs7WhTZo+KPeJH+Z4mvRBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T14:41:24.297713Z"},"content_sha256":"998862eae7fafafe0df39cd992861781712da806d2e055e047859fc1333d1c1d","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:998862eae7fafafe0df39cd992861781712da806d2e055e047859fc1333d1c1d"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-07T14:41:24Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQAWI7JJIRAUE","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"cc7e54c23dad5dd3c59556e8f16f5fd4b5ea6710a15423a9f6e0008ab8e1588c","cross_cats_sorted":["q-bio.PE","stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2018-10-12T08:19:50Z","title_canon_sha256":"c784d297e8238b05f89b42276b8277318d8fa8e8b2ada4c4290650186ac4bd13"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1810.05398","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1810.05398","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1810.05398v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1810.05398","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"T6WHEFLKNQOM","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"T6WHEFLKNQOMZBQA","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:53Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"T6WHEFLK","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:32:53Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:998862eae7fafafe0df39cd992861781712da806d2e055e047859fc1333d1c1d","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large","authors_text":"Tianqi Zhu, Ziheng Yang","cross_cats":["q-bio.PE","stat.TH"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2018-10-12T08:19:50Z","title":"The good, the bad, and the ugly: Bayesian model selection produces spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1810.05398","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:cefc809dd8e1dfcfd230d6bfcb75254dfd64848b5ae971018ec3899db7853872","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"cc7e54c23dad5dd3c59556e8f16f5fd4b5ea6710a15423a9f6e0008ab8e1588c","cross_cats_sorted":["q-bio.PE","stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2018-10-12T08:19:50Z","title_canon_sha256":"c784d297e8238b05f89b42276b8277318d8fa8e8b2ada4c4290650186ac4bd13"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1810.05398","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"9fac72156a6c1ccc8600b23e94a220a106b04cae57bd40eb2f66a7d933beb504","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"9fac72156a6c1ccc8600b23e94a220a106b04cae57bd40eb2f66a7d933beb504","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30.707951Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30.707951Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"dCmw7cShPuHYo8gAuJiFboEuuVR0guZbUFt1QUuskSeRdL2Ohwt8X9daaCkzfgAJQVok00kkK5e1XyV38A57Cg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T00:03:30.708537Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1810.05398","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:cefc809dd8e1dfcfd230d6bfcb75254dfd64848b5ae971018ec3899db7853872","sha256:998862eae7fafafe0df39cd992861781712da806d2e055e047859fc1333d1c1d"],"state_sha256":"9dbb4b0007fc941e5db4c98c8647d78bc5a56d9e7c3b9600988f698f63234122"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"5IvePOohWpQANJTQUJVN3/pbF+REwcjw8nc/GyxnNYm/GF5EFGmyy6X/UZiOiaTWqLaSsGyLbwNG+4WRU0p+Ag==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-07T14:41:24.299570Z","bundle_sha256":"2f7bd67cbd1d43808158646e7f2362dbd25b86de8d2ece2ea7784133d1d4029b"}}