{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW","short_pith_number":"pith:TYIBWZQX","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2606.00783","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-05-30T16:02:56Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","math.PR","stat.CO"],"title_canon_sha256":"4305befd224b6973c1c82f34e0192936113c8f4e743644895f5b90c9c30ac640","abstract_canon_sha256":"3076b90bc344103273ed2f68bd5d08006a8dde8f85defc989f228f182878cc8c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"9e101b66170b8531e60da27fd461418db1c74ea75f08a042c26ec619d00c90d2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2606.00783","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.00783","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.00783v1","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.00783","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"TYIBWZQXBOCT","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQN","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"TYIBWZQX","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2606.00783","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-05-30T16:02:56Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","math.PR","stat.CO"],"title_canon_sha256":"4305befd224b6973c1c82f34e0192936113c8f4e743644895f5b90c9c30ac640","abstract_canon_sha256":"3076b90bc344103273ed2f68bd5d08006a8dde8f85defc989f228f182878cc8c"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"9e101b66170b8531e60da27fd461418db1c74ea75f08a042c26ec619d00c90d2","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05.598761Z","signature_b64":"yxTuOIQES7VO76qRdcxogkzuel/KL8qHPSohE6XjjsfUgCvKe572cCi7nZoO6fJA6K5sYrXXrSkyDSZYLmYtDA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"9e101b66170b8531e60da27fd461418db1c74ea75f08a042c26ec619d00c90d2","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05.598339Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05.598339Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2606.00783","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"YQQDINKOY7rVNGI2ePIocEU+XYyhU4yd/DvPf+GJg0CR5gXIAtx6P3I4jWbH6B+PugAqYf4ogWqRt8gyMQSXDw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T02:35:54.144375Z"},"content_sha256":"76fabcd83eb09e4191da64c6193ea51ed0c7837e80f3ccc901e699f9703ce4ab","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:76fabcd83eb09e4191da64c6193ea51ed0c7837e80f3ccc901e699f9703ce4ab"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Malaria Dynamics in Ghana via an Ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampler","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","math.PR","stat.CO"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"J. Bremang Tandoh, T. Ansah-Narh, Y. Asare Afrane","submitted_at":"2026-05-30T16:02:56Z","abstract_excerpt":"Reliable quantification of malaria dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is hindered by short, noisy, and spatially heterogeneous surveillance records. In Ghana, health-facility data from 2014 to 2023 reveal non-linear and age-specific fluctuations in hospital admissions, yet existing approaches struggle to capture stochastic variability or provide credible uncertainty bounds. This study develops a Bayesian nonlinear inference framework that integrates a cubic baseline with a damped oscillatory kernel, estimated via an affine-invariant ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. The framework accommod"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.00783","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.00783/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"W/B0Q972pZG3K5ytNHJedEt8kRFBeXjjtGTyPe77Yks82XSeAejOGYHEjwlYQ8xojrSxfjVxS9cNJnMNK/6WAA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T02:35:54.145145Z"},"content_sha256":"58c35a3691e550d2c5655d54b3ec49f34d2b159b1d55bc0509a73a99ef0ed3ce","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:58c35a3691e550d2c5655d54b3ec49f34d2b159b1d55bc0509a73a99ef0ed3ce"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-09T02:35:54Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQNUJ75IYKBRW","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3076b90bc344103273ed2f68bd5d08006a8dde8f85defc989f228f182878cc8c","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","math.PR","stat.CO"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-05-30T16:02:56Z","title_canon_sha256":"4305befd224b6973c1c82f34e0192936113c8f4e743644895f5b90c9c30ac640"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.00783","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.00783","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.00783v1","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.00783","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"TYIBWZQXBOCT","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"TYIBWZQXBOCTDZQN","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"TYIBWZQX","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:58c35a3691e550d2c5655d54b3ec49f34d2b159b1d55bc0509a73a99ef0ed3ce","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2606.00783/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Reliable quantification of malaria dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is hindered by short, noisy, and spatially heterogeneous surveillance records. In Ghana, health-facility data from 2014 to 2023 reveal non-linear and age-specific fluctuations in hospital admissions, yet existing approaches struggle to capture stochastic variability or provide credible uncertainty bounds. This study develops a Bayesian nonlinear inference framework that integrates a cubic baseline with a damped oscillatory kernel, estimated via an affine-invariant ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. The framework accommod","authors_text":"J. Bremang Tandoh, T. Ansah-Narh, Y. Asare Afrane","cross_cats":["cs.AI","math.PR","stat.CO"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-05-30T16:02:56Z","title":"Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Malaria Dynamics in Ghana via an Ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampler"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.00783","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:76fabcd83eb09e4191da64c6193ea51ed0c7837e80f3ccc901e699f9703ce4ab","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3076b90bc344103273ed2f68bd5d08006a8dde8f85defc989f228f182878cc8c","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","math.PR","stat.CO"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-05-30T16:02:56Z","title_canon_sha256":"4305befd224b6973c1c82f34e0192936113c8f4e743644895f5b90c9c30ac640"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.00783","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"9e101b66170b8531e60da27fd461418db1c74ea75f08a042c26ec619d00c90d2","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"9e101b66170b8531e60da27fd461418db1c74ea75f08a042c26ec619d00c90d2","first_computed_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05.598339Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05.598339Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"yxTuOIQES7VO76qRdcxogkzuel/KL8qHPSohE6XjjsfUgCvKe572cCi7nZoO6fJA6K5sYrXXrSkyDSZYLmYtDA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-02T01:04:05.598761Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2606.00783","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:76fabcd83eb09e4191da64c6193ea51ed0c7837e80f3ccc901e699f9703ce4ab","sha256:58c35a3691e550d2c5655d54b3ec49f34d2b159b1d55bc0509a73a99ef0ed3ce"],"state_sha256":"2094b4564965038093630b46669bf780ba66ad5d76e31c62c856e399667bd74d"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Ef9qaL8EDbzmFk+CCw9azGH1fC8t3Z8eMoFUIjcK9HSxoyBbSzyrc4igqJ/FlHUAsD5sHvKRTamOxQb+wg4hAg==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-09T02:35:54.148962Z","bundle_sha256":"12b16edbc3125c2ecb7221cfec9bdb285684d3ec022cf63ce32d549e07f0d9b8"}}