{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2011:U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP","short_pith_number":"pith:U6KQOJRX","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1112.4908","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2011-12-21T02:03:13Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"title_canon_sha256":"c8010f5963e69289efb02351e4d8cb5c00a5588d6983975ae476a7b2d264646d","abstract_canon_sha256":"dfad374bbb4b047cdcb4f5faa8a03268be47b9618d5ad7666a7365f0bf76a7c8"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"a7950726370dd1925af95d3fbebaa42be88427721a28aa9533b252f14fee18ca","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1112.4908","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1112.4908","created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1112.4908v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1112.4908","created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"U6KQOJRXBXIZ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:42Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:42Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"U6KQOJRX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:42Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2011:U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1112.4908","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2011-12-21T02:03:13Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"title_canon_sha256":"c8010f5963e69289efb02351e4d8cb5c00a5588d6983975ae476a7b2d264646d","abstract_canon_sha256":"dfad374bbb4b047cdcb4f5faa8a03268be47b9618d5ad7666a7365f0bf76a7c8"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"a7950726370dd1925af95d3fbebaa42be88427721a28aa9533b252f14fee18ca","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56.909342Z","signature_b64":"1cueiPgvUrCpkSU6R+D5wOC19jGbxJQQ4TgShkawAjlnNAR4TPkJ3TklhNme13qPwBhFhwVyarA/IMm+0GNpBQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"a7950726370dd1925af95d3fbebaa42be88427721a28aa9533b252f14fee18ca","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56.908614Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56.908614Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1112.4908","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"e6/ZhlyO7KzG1LnPELKmBah399w5XPs2XkngNMksvaz0oolgPObwNZd3mGuxV6gYu+qhVq0O2xsIq1zFEBrNCg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-27T15:54:01.892673Z"},"content_sha256":"34458dd6af761de3f73d280dcdb253182b53a7086f84ebbd9d726d430529ae71","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:34458dd6af761de3f73d280dcdb253182b53a7086f84ebbd9d726d430529ae71"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2011:U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Converging towards the optimal path to extinction","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz, Leah B. Shaw, Simone Bianco","submitted_at":"2011-12-21T02:03:13Z","abstract_excerpt":"Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution, and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare event, its occurrence is observed in large finite populations. Extinction occurs when fluctuations due to random transitions act as an effective force which drives one or more components or species to vanish. Although there are many random paths to an extinct state, there is an optimal path that maximizes the probability to extinction. In this article, we show that the optimal path is associated with the dynamical sy"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1112.4908","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"KZ+U5Y66HVYWNYMtZcNCROZBatUrPSlnyvbOzsUYQL2uJZyagMWFq5/bKxWNXeV+nxBEf9jtDfw9PRa5bPnECw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-27T15:54:01.893354Z"},"content_sha256":"5629d1fecc3bb393b1a596698aa2174ca70ac1e5c174ff0aac82a4b663d887b8","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:5629d1fecc3bb393b1a596698aa2174ca70ac1e5c174ff0aac82a4b663d887b8"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-05-27T15:54:01Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2011:U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZLU735OVEFP","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"dfad374bbb4b047cdcb4f5faa8a03268be47b9618d5ad7666a7365f0bf76a7c8","cross_cats_sorted":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2011-12-21T02:03:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"c8010f5963e69289efb02351e4d8cb5c00a5588d6983975ae476a7b2d264646d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1112.4908","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1112.4908","created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1112.4908v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1112.4908","created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"U6KQOJRXBXIZ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:42Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"U6KQOJRXBXIZEWXZ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:42Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"U6KQOJRX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:42Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:5629d1fecc3bb393b1a596698aa2174ca70ac1e5c174ff0aac82a4b663d887b8","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution, and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare event, its occurrence is observed in large finite populations. Extinction occurs when fluctuations due to random transitions act as an effective force which drives one or more components or species to vanish. Although there are many random paths to an extinct state, there is an optimal path that maximizes the probability to extinction. In this article, we show that the optimal path is associated with the dynamical sy","authors_text":"Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz, Leah B. Shaw, Simone Bianco","cross_cats":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2011-12-21T02:03:13Z","title":"Converging towards the optimal path to extinction"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1112.4908","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:34458dd6af761de3f73d280dcdb253182b53a7086f84ebbd9d726d430529ae71","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"dfad374bbb4b047cdcb4f5faa8a03268be47b9618d5ad7666a7365f0bf76a7c8","cross_cats_sorted":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2011-12-21T02:03:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"c8010f5963e69289efb02351e4d8cb5c00a5588d6983975ae476a7b2d264646d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1112.4908","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"a7950726370dd1925af95d3fbebaa42be88427721a28aa9533b252f14fee18ca","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"a7950726370dd1925af95d3fbebaa42be88427721a28aa9533b252f14fee18ca","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56.908614Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56.908614Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"1cueiPgvUrCpkSU6R+D5wOC19jGbxJQQ4TgShkawAjlnNAR4TPkJ3TklhNme13qPwBhFhwVyarA/IMm+0GNpBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T04:05:56.909342Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1112.4908","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:34458dd6af761de3f73d280dcdb253182b53a7086f84ebbd9d726d430529ae71","sha256:5629d1fecc3bb393b1a596698aa2174ca70ac1e5c174ff0aac82a4b663d887b8"],"state_sha256":"5390493d9443ab98f88ee75268fb1eb3afab4f528ebb3687d45e0e36f26d57f3"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"N7HTxIhfnfQQUKO3h7OmgoN6JzTOBjTtCfrNPlKuJTWKVvIC/Xu5SDyJRW+RZAktcTIpqRdb/NOGoxBxVunyDA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-27T15:54:01.896395Z","bundle_sha256":"343643ddec1cdc5402e6ae9aae4d2b96cae23fbefeb7a23deb5a6570ffc98466"}}