{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG","short_pith_number":"pith:UKDZWTNE","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2504.04997","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-04-07T12:24:59Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","cs.LG","math.ST","stat.AP","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"8c8e95a4c486eb72763a1cbf8b319c8f26ba158caf92d1caaee88f524e3a751c","abstract_canon_sha256":"780ec7ac23d0106338d02df873fc7c2b08acf965cbc3e13f920702431782a8c2"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"a2879b4da4c158b4aa7ea23cc82bcf199e3555ce0ec3f0803388b0b001a021cc","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2504.04997","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2504.04997","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2504.04997v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2504.04997","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"UKDZWTNEYFML","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"UKDZWTNE","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2025:UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2504.04997","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-04-07T12:24:59Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","cs.LG","math.ST","stat.AP","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"8c8e95a4c486eb72763a1cbf8b319c8f26ba158caf92d1caaee88f524e3a751c","abstract_canon_sha256":"780ec7ac23d0106338d02df873fc7c2b08acf965cbc3e13f920702431782a8c2"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"a2879b4da4c158b4aa7ea23cc82bcf199e3555ce0ec3f0803388b0b001a021cc","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32.458991Z","signature_b64":"TO62poOZ7utewU3I83SBCeON2LRrMwqpVjSJGiN/HPFl7EvT31seJ7QrI5j/EigimJeL3jz/7jw0Bpgr/sFpAg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"a2879b4da4c158b4aa7ea23cc82bcf199e3555ce0ec3f0803388b0b001a021cc","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32.458530Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32.458530Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2504.04997","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"1K9unPffeyupndywgOnBy9VMZLULKYbVtiReirXe3qH7LJKmAxxHIJ2OlUl/WXHD15iJH1lycDLnSu28kwFoDg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-06T15:01:55.419160Z"},"content_sha256":"00b62b4119a3ae7a1e95992bc078d03cce8549bf3f4a76242e15a2d03e9a1e51","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:00b62b4119a3ae7a1e95992bc078d03cce8549bf3f4a76242e15a2d03e9a1e51"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2025:UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"SurvSurf: a partially monotonic neural network for first-hitting time prediction of intermittently observed discrete and continuous sequential events","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.LG","math.ST","stat.AP","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"Carola-Bibiane Sch\\\"onlieb, James H.F. Rudd, James Jones, John Aston, Josep Ar\\'us-Pous, Kamen Bliznashki, Kinga Bernatowicz, Michael Roberts, S\\\"oren Dittmer, Yichen Kelly Chen","submitted_at":"2025-04-07T12:24:59Z","abstract_excerpt":"We propose a neural-network based survival model (SurvSurf) specifically designed for direct and simultaneous probabilistic prediction of the first hitting time of sequential events from baseline. Unlike existing models, SurvSurf is theoretically guaranteed to never violate the monotonic relationship between the cumulative incidence functions of sequential events, while allowing nonlinear influence from predictors. It also incorporates implicit truths for unobserved intermediate events in model fitting, and supports both discrete and continuous time and events. We also identified a variant of "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2504.04997","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2504.04997/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"cC/xFdNBrlP3WL0n0Sc40ai2E/Q99zYjhCV+YNz9tGjkxB8W7fiT4AWHjPjV/pXd95mMBZ5UfIIhuG2W4ZtJBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-06T15:01:55.419550Z"},"content_sha256":"578cfec8a41808e43c859feeca5db8bb2bf52cf0bd7f6150cde7f600d98248dd","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:578cfec8a41808e43c859feeca5db8bb2bf52cf0bd7f6150cde7f600d98248dd"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-07-06T15:01:55Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6UI6MQK6PDG","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"780ec7ac23d0106338d02df873fc7c2b08acf965cbc3e13f920702431782a8c2","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","cs.LG","math.ST","stat.AP","stat.TH"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-04-07T12:24:59Z","title_canon_sha256":"8c8e95a4c486eb72763a1cbf8b319c8f26ba158caf92d1caaee88f524e3a751c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2504.04997","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2504.04997","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2504.04997v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2504.04997","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"UKDZWTNEYFML","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"UKDZWTNEYFMLJKT6","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"UKDZWTNE","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:578cfec8a41808e43c859feeca5db8bb2bf52cf0bd7f6150cde7f600d98248dd","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2504.04997/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We propose a neural-network based survival model (SurvSurf) specifically designed for direct and simultaneous probabilistic prediction of the first hitting time of sequential events from baseline. Unlike existing models, SurvSurf is theoretically guaranteed to never violate the monotonic relationship between the cumulative incidence functions of sequential events, while allowing nonlinear influence from predictors. It also incorporates implicit truths for unobserved intermediate events in model fitting, and supports both discrete and continuous time and events. We also identified a variant of ","authors_text":"Carola-Bibiane Sch\\\"onlieb, James H.F. Rudd, James Jones, John Aston, Josep Ar\\'us-Pous, Kamen Bliznashki, Kinga Bernatowicz, Michael Roberts, S\\\"oren Dittmer, Yichen Kelly Chen","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.LG","math.ST","stat.AP","stat.TH"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-04-07T12:24:59Z","title":"SurvSurf: a partially monotonic neural network for first-hitting time prediction of intermittently observed discrete and continuous sequential events"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2504.04997","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:00b62b4119a3ae7a1e95992bc078d03cce8549bf3f4a76242e15a2d03e9a1e51","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"780ec7ac23d0106338d02df873fc7c2b08acf965cbc3e13f920702431782a8c2","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.AI","cs.LG","math.ST","stat.AP","stat.TH"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-04-07T12:24:59Z","title_canon_sha256":"8c8e95a4c486eb72763a1cbf8b319c8f26ba158caf92d1caaee88f524e3a751c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2504.04997","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"a2879b4da4c158b4aa7ea23cc82bcf199e3555ce0ec3f0803388b0b001a021cc","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"a2879b4da4c158b4aa7ea23cc82bcf199e3555ce0ec3f0803388b0b001a021cc","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32.458530Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32.458530Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"TO62poOZ7utewU3I83SBCeON2LRrMwqpVjSJGiN/HPFl7EvT31seJ7QrI5j/EigimJeL3jz/7jw0Bpgr/sFpAg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T10:45:32.458991Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2504.04997","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:00b62b4119a3ae7a1e95992bc078d03cce8549bf3f4a76242e15a2d03e9a1e51","sha256:578cfec8a41808e43c859feeca5db8bb2bf52cf0bd7f6150cde7f600d98248dd"],"state_sha256":"b6b76e7593d57812bc7408e8bc81af866bcac7d6d9a32a7129ffecdeeb63f4bf"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"TLVJKPAjF3A3SUkigGDJW5hkxl7k/Qn/ayL59NNZmZOb0NrYs4IOSjWyB7JiVlPnwShzfN0xvTHs8BoDNVWzCQ==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-07-06T15:01:55.421688Z","bundle_sha256":"eeb1ebe815e32476af14b8e6ff0340f8d237865e31c7e4e8cf4455d5c1043a7c"}}