{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2019:V47F53MDEWUV3TWEDUDZG6YCVD","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"807ec0e81463b078e92ccd12f5a3d6e1d27062d2ef7bfc86cca6c0239e30cbf2","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.PR","submitted_at":"2019-11-30T03:57:06Z","title_canon_sha256":"ddc3aa6e97b8e0ba2e770a13f45429098fd8e9980ab7bd5b1f920089d50d51b2"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1912.00126","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1912.00126","created_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1912.00126v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1912.00126","created_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"V47F53MDEWUV","created_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"V47F53MDEWUV3TWE","created_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"V47F53MD","created_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:4154d81ff6e27fd5387b701b0a127a80b109bc8765ca1be84117cfc818aa40a6","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/1912.00126/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different $\\sigma$-fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common probability space to obtain an aggregated forecast. Our proof is constructive in the sense that, not only the sharp bounds are proved, but also the optimizer is constructed via an explicit algorithm.","authors_text":"Krzysztof Burdzy, Soumik Pal","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.PR","submitted_at":"2019-11-30T03:57:06Z","title":"Contradictory predictions"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1912.00126","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:45bf51393f0711d10c22c45316ca9d7c635c1d26ade171bc3fe5361ee40547ab","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"807ec0e81463b078e92ccd12f5a3d6e1d27062d2ef7bfc86cca6c0239e30cbf2","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.PR","submitted_at":"2019-11-30T03:57:06Z","title_canon_sha256":"ddc3aa6e97b8e0ba2e770a13f45429098fd8e9980ab7bd5b1f920089d50d51b2"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1912.00126","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"af3e5eed8325a95dcec41d07937b02a8c915aead9ff48409ad06f2da90d5ef6b","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"af3e5eed8325a95dcec41d07937b02a8c915aead9ff48409ad06f2da90d5ef6b","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10.408787Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10.408787Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"pZefNLQ5+HLMGEBClc+z9Gr5HzWRO0B8Qpl+Fq1Ver96UNbjU1FCbMWjWXq0VuLwu4OeKw/DjuZbu5CawMgmDw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T00:23:10.409190Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1912.00126","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:45bf51393f0711d10c22c45316ca9d7c635c1d26ade171bc3fe5361ee40547ab","sha256:4154d81ff6e27fd5387b701b0a127a80b109bc8765ca1be84117cfc818aa40a6"],"state_sha256":"d6f3340d716ccc63db7111241dab5b92e59fe51d5e1226bbd8302ef6eb45735e"}