{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2010:V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U","short_pith_number":"pith:V66K3EXV","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1009.5075","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.TR","submitted_at":"2010-09-26T08:57:05Z","cross_cats_sorted":["nlin.AO","physics.soc-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"de835bd7082eee733034d89aa0de49d33ba13a47b3280a44830c3d497877928a","abstract_canon_sha256":"83ce200f2bd2f09e84a28575c86bf4d1613319b700a8372aadd707cd6b95a1ff"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"afbcad92f5bf1733888de45e5e7c56fd3d9e09d8dbd99f2611fc407a02885d90","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1009.5075","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1009.5075","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1009.5075v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1009.5075","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"V66K3EXVX4LT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"V66K3EXV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:15Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2010:V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1009.5075","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.TR","submitted_at":"2010-09-26T08:57:05Z","cross_cats_sorted":["nlin.AO","physics.soc-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"de835bd7082eee733034d89aa0de49d33ba13a47b3280a44830c3d497877928a","abstract_canon_sha256":"83ce200f2bd2f09e84a28575c86bf4d1613319b700a8372aadd707cd6b95a1ff"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"afbcad92f5bf1733888de45e5e7c56fd3d9e09d8dbd99f2611fc407a02885d90","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57.595122Z","signature_b64":"cCntoLu+2Ru5+IkbkSp9Hx3lCUsNXaW0jw8nUJI+fU5CUg3y6XFdjE9ZzVQCdyPVCJnj7MQninSCcY3/Q4Q2Bw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"afbcad92f5bf1733888de45e5e7c56fd3d9e09d8dbd99f2611fc407a02885d90","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57.594676Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57.594676Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1009.5075","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"EC5dfJc3ivKpQqLjMAfWCqr8GTjSLp9NDtBH52IdNHR2mP8n/iW1BvQsbzEuqVhRs0pJd0B7vXFuC1pHYqPLBA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-04T19:00:27.057268Z"},"content_sha256":"a4557baab591e1cf25aa9093caeadf49c5cfe9ab12e0c1f7df9c3c96371c56bd","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:a4557baab591e1cf25aa9093caeadf49c5cfe9ab12e0c1f7df9c3c96371c56bd"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2010:V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Adaptive Expectations, Confirmatory Bias, and Informational Efficiency","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["nlin.AO","physics.soc-ph"],"primary_cat":"q-fin.TR","authors_text":"Gani Aldashev, Simone Righi, Timoteo Carletti","submitted_at":"2010-09-26T08:57:05Z","abstract_excerpt":"We study the informational efficiency of a market with a single traded asset. The price initially differs from the fundamental value, about which the agents have noisy private information (which is, on average, correct). A fraction of traders revise their price expectations in each period. The price at which the asset is traded is public information. The agents' expectations have an adaptive component and a social-interactions component with confirmatory bias. We show that, taken separately, each of the deviations from rationality worsen the information efficiency of the market. However, when "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1009.5075","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"llN7E0PN8gwhSEcRIfI2y7gwQCbmef7/O7uz+A1HCu0fnbhhUjdmAMgysYG2Oht8heWCGTc4iuiocZMQOq71Dw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-04T19:00:27.057633Z"},"content_sha256":"dff2a149aae478697f6f7a52e9889035314c17058d1a19e171648a6149816cff","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:dff2a149aae478697f6f7a52e9889035314c17058d1a19e171648a6149816cff"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-04T19:00:27Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2010:V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN4RPF47CW7U","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"83ce200f2bd2f09e84a28575c86bf4d1613319b700a8372aadd707cd6b95a1ff","cross_cats_sorted":["nlin.AO","physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.TR","submitted_at":"2010-09-26T08:57:05Z","title_canon_sha256":"de835bd7082eee733034d89aa0de49d33ba13a47b3280a44830c3d497877928a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1009.5075","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1009.5075","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1009.5075v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1009.5075","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"V66K3EXVX4LT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"V66K3EXVX4LTHCEN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:15Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"V66K3EXV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:26:15Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:dff2a149aae478697f6f7a52e9889035314c17058d1a19e171648a6149816cff","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We study the informational efficiency of a market with a single traded asset. The price initially differs from the fundamental value, about which the agents have noisy private information (which is, on average, correct). A fraction of traders revise their price expectations in each period. The price at which the asset is traded is public information. The agents' expectations have an adaptive component and a social-interactions component with confirmatory bias. We show that, taken separately, each of the deviations from rationality worsen the information efficiency of the market. However, when ","authors_text":"Gani Aldashev, Simone Righi, Timoteo Carletti","cross_cats":["nlin.AO","physics.soc-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.TR","submitted_at":"2010-09-26T08:57:05Z","title":"Adaptive Expectations, Confirmatory Bias, and Informational Efficiency"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1009.5075","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:a4557baab591e1cf25aa9093caeadf49c5cfe9ab12e0c1f7df9c3c96371c56bd","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"83ce200f2bd2f09e84a28575c86bf4d1613319b700a8372aadd707cd6b95a1ff","cross_cats_sorted":["nlin.AO","physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-fin.TR","submitted_at":"2010-09-26T08:57:05Z","title_canon_sha256":"de835bd7082eee733034d89aa0de49d33ba13a47b3280a44830c3d497877928a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1009.5075","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"afbcad92f5bf1733888de45e5e7c56fd3d9e09d8dbd99f2611fc407a02885d90","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"afbcad92f5bf1733888de45e5e7c56fd3d9e09d8dbd99f2611fc407a02885d90","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57.594676Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57.594676Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"cCntoLu+2Ru5+IkbkSp9Hx3lCUsNXaW0jw8nUJI+fU5CUg3y6XFdjE9ZzVQCdyPVCJnj7MQninSCcY3/Q4Q2Bw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:02:57.595122Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1009.5075","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:a4557baab591e1cf25aa9093caeadf49c5cfe9ab12e0c1f7df9c3c96371c56bd","sha256:dff2a149aae478697f6f7a52e9889035314c17058d1a19e171648a6149816cff"],"state_sha256":"fb9ae6dacdac0433a81f2117eeadfab3fb59c9ca139e89d3736da76ad01063d4"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"FEDeA9DbaYc/WXNyCQJ9XPTckxY+SrwkNqzN07PToHzEGPHJkKSTmGKnGHpTnhxX+nJe5fNBftngGPm0XudmDg==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-04T19:00:27.059518Z","bundle_sha256":"112791bf246fbac7d0dbfc797e1011b7cd16e1d93853075b4d02376515cd3681"}}