{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:VYWI7GOQPYYR6NUZ2V724VAJND","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"fde0841c31d0cc54d27ae89c1d3c4c857a8b52934410dd14ea0d1c947ddd2f8c","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an","q-bio.QM"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-09-05T00:15:25Z","title_canon_sha256":"2144df49e1fe68cb82a98aa8a64d4ca78af72e62b173b0aa636262421277aca9"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2509.04718","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2509.04718","created_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2509.04718v2","created_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2509.04718","created_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"VYWI7GOQPYYR","created_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"VYWI7GOQPYYR6NUZ","created_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"VYWI7GOQ","created_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:34f16ff1acd16899fe146d03c8d29850f98e30d0e025b60e0d286ff249870b78","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2509.04718/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The ubiquitous regression to the mean (RTM) effect complicates statistical inference regarding the relationship between baseline levels of a biological variable and its subsequent change. We demonstrate that common RTM correction methods are problematic: the Berry et al. method, popularized by Kelly & Price in The American Naturalist, is unreliable for hypothesis testing or effect-size estimation, leading to systematic bias and inflated error rates. Conversely, while the Blomqvist method is theoretically unbiased, its high sampling variance limits its practical utility in small-to-moderate dat","authors_text":"Jos\\'e F. Fontanari, Mauro Santos","cross_cats":["physics.data-an","q-bio.QM"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-09-05T00:15:25Z","title":"When correcting for regression to the mean is worse than no correction at all"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2509.04718","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:e408e54c976c7f9c94372e733bcce73c300220c5064f40b34c7d28281257d7e6","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"fde0841c31d0cc54d27ae89c1d3c4c857a8b52934410dd14ea0d1c947ddd2f8c","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an","q-bio.QM"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2025-09-05T00:15:25Z","title_canon_sha256":"2144df49e1fe68cb82a98aa8a64d4ca78af72e62b173b0aa636262421277aca9"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2509.04718","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"ae2c8f99d07e311f3699d57fae540968e38f8956cc663112a34ea6d758a14336","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"ae2c8f99d07e311f3699d57fae540968e38f8956cc663112a34ea6d758a14336","first_computed_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06.410526Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06.410526Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"IzmqNPQ7NUJXsWANezrZaKYBL203AkkCk6uYxCLBh7aCONA0vDG6dKyZ7EqBtnuvx9O0xjc8q7+WJMGcXKhQBg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-08T01:19:06.411054Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2509.04718","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:e408e54c976c7f9c94372e733bcce73c300220c5064f40b34c7d28281257d7e6","sha256:34f16ff1acd16899fe146d03c8d29850f98e30d0e025b60e0d286ff249870b78"],"state_sha256":"5971799f8179dc2b2b58656c941e8e0fa889887e3621be20b3c7c8312d922bcb"}