{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU","short_pith_number":"pith:WBWSY3Y2","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2412.02081","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2024-12-03T01:53:06Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"ecfff2f01d0cc7cb2bf378af6495c17f94670a4b3b952b52709f7fd151525768","abstract_canon_sha256":"0688c8bec836e3023873e5a97f119d598c03cf0c61ba3a3d297f946bb18a2609"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"b06d2c6f1a202688b5ab096002dac9cd02d1c7c731fbbd0ab5820e8b3cba72ba","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2412.02081","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2412.02081","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2412.02081v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2412.02081","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"WBWSY3Y2EATI","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNL","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"WBWSY3Y2","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2412.02081","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2024-12-03T01:53:06Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"ecfff2f01d0cc7cb2bf378af6495c17f94670a4b3b952b52709f7fd151525768","abstract_canon_sha256":"0688c8bec836e3023873e5a97f119d598c03cf0c61ba3a3d297f946bb18a2609"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"b06d2c6f1a202688b5ab096002dac9cd02d1c7c731fbbd0ab5820e8b3cba72ba","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43.682307Z","signature_b64":"XhhfHQ3EM8akP2EZA9l/eZ4OrMaaRIAwFlzIro1hPC4BRYj0yu+zJO6xF+UQl+38Z9obTatf2sNZ7NM4IVaEDg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"b06d2c6f1a202688b5ab096002dac9cd02d1c7c731fbbd0ab5820e8b3cba72ba","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43.681817Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43.681817Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2412.02081","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"eXTCWics1VALcc6HTzzgtdzvWarOC8RVelnTST8uNXaCcRikHToatvxFFC5cPRhCW/6l+rpdlYrx0pvzmlkBAA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T05:12:51.101816Z"},"content_sha256":"f1439f25a5a7a511808db28c198f6c760e782094f38f7e85b36a7cec6a392d6f","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:f1439f25a5a7a511808db28c198f6c760e782094f38f7e85b36a7cec6a392d6f"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Let's Think Var-by-Var: Large Language Models Enable Ad Hoc Probabilistic Reasoning","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.CL","authors_text":"Brian Lu, Jason Eisner, Shepard Xia","submitted_at":"2024-12-03T01:53:06Z","abstract_excerpt":"A hallmark of intelligence is the ability to flesh out underspecified situations using \"common sense.\" We propose to extract that common sense from large language models (LLMs), in a form that can feed into probabilistic inference. We focus our investigation on $\\textit{guesstimation}$ questions such as \"How much are Airbnb listings in Newark, NJ?\" Formulating a sensible answer without access to data requires drawing on, and integrating, bits of common knowledge about how $\\texttt{Price}$ and $\\texttt{Location}$ may relate to other variables, such as $\\texttt{Property Type}$. Our framework ans"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2412.02081","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2412.02081/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"BKUC/CgnZ6S783ag85cR2w7fh3LXthYSoE1sY8k+R9kVCLIkm1jJDsCo3iC/TwfztlOMJGSxxZedK6XireYDAQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T05:12:51.102355Z"},"content_sha256":"dadc7db4c319b76c0c39d5df1ce637f4634b6dd97e12ecfc50f29b2b80df822c","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:dadc7db4c319b76c0c39d5df1ce637f4634b6dd97e12ecfc50f29b2b80df822c"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-08T05:12:51Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNLBFQAFWWJZU","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"0688c8bec836e3023873e5a97f119d598c03cf0c61ba3a3d297f946bb18a2609","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2024-12-03T01:53:06Z","title_canon_sha256":"ecfff2f01d0cc7cb2bf378af6495c17f94670a4b3b952b52709f7fd151525768"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2412.02081","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2412.02081","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2412.02081v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2412.02081","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"WBWSY3Y2EATI","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"WBWSY3Y2EATIRNNL","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"WBWSY3Y2","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:dadc7db4c319b76c0c39d5df1ce637f4634b6dd97e12ecfc50f29b2b80df822c","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2412.02081/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"A hallmark of intelligence is the ability to flesh out underspecified situations using \"common sense.\" We propose to extract that common sense from large language models (LLMs), in a form that can feed into probabilistic inference. We focus our investigation on $\\textit{guesstimation}$ questions such as \"How much are Airbnb listings in Newark, NJ?\" Formulating a sensible answer without access to data requires drawing on, and integrating, bits of common knowledge about how $\\texttt{Price}$ and $\\texttt{Location}$ may relate to other variables, such as $\\texttt{Property Type}$. Our framework ans","authors_text":"Brian Lu, Jason Eisner, Shepard Xia","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2024-12-03T01:53:06Z","title":"Let's Think Var-by-Var: Large Language Models Enable Ad Hoc Probabilistic Reasoning"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2412.02081","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:f1439f25a5a7a511808db28c198f6c760e782094f38f7e85b36a7cec6a392d6f","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"0688c8bec836e3023873e5a97f119d598c03cf0c61ba3a3d297f946bb18a2609","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.CL","submitted_at":"2024-12-03T01:53:06Z","title_canon_sha256":"ecfff2f01d0cc7cb2bf378af6495c17f94670a4b3b952b52709f7fd151525768"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2412.02081","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"b06d2c6f1a202688b5ab096002dac9cd02d1c7c731fbbd0ab5820e8b3cba72ba","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"b06d2c6f1a202688b5ab096002dac9cd02d1c7c731fbbd0ab5820e8b3cba72ba","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43.681817Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43.681817Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"XhhfHQ3EM8akP2EZA9l/eZ4OrMaaRIAwFlzIro1hPC4BRYj0yu+zJO6xF+UQl+38Z9obTatf2sNZ7NM4IVaEDg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T09:43:43.682307Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2412.02081","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:f1439f25a5a7a511808db28c198f6c760e782094f38f7e85b36a7cec6a392d6f","sha256:dadc7db4c319b76c0c39d5df1ce637f4634b6dd97e12ecfc50f29b2b80df822c"],"state_sha256":"2ee123d373fc1a127e9b2f4aab6ef92220b3720eba6375cd02ed8865b50be41f"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"tkVffw5fK5ys0dq3QdfcNyeqBXWsEo1KT3m+F0bGV/51bCtwWhsKiL/7Af10dlqs++7VEJ4hZLccSaOZDDbmCA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-08T05:12:51.107406Z","bundle_sha256":"00ec44452fb265edc93500016fe4e1e483cc317613573b336bdcb2e25f486a9d"}}