{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2014:WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK","short_pith_number":"pith:WDALENMJ","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"b0c0b2358955b35a23f57eca25ae4d8a95e77ce043a73d150635c80659104765","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1412.3857","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"Eric Forgoston, Garrett Nieddu, Lora Billings","submitted_at":"2014-12-11T23:05:11Z","abstract_excerpt":"We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quan"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1412.3857","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2014-12-11T23:05:11Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"title_canon_sha256":"1501175051e95ce1b56f6c47da74a733e9f05a1e1edb0f9c5ba1a9d6352a692f","abstract_canon_sha256":"dc79bbae6fa6244ecce499c3807802d895b5eb26c3352369826a536e404d4dea"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.192365Z","signature_b64":"1VkQBir30gFmLBVHyx4wv9DgyRoKDjVAKuyH0FgsR1gtrfuUDiuyZ74K4FGKZvkDTc7K607dpScHYzuiV0K8CA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"b0c0b2358955b35a23f57eca25ae4d8a95e77ce043a73d150635c80659104765","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191709Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191709Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"Eric Forgoston, Garrett Nieddu, Lora Billings","submitted_at":"2014-12-11T23:05:11Z","abstract_excerpt":"We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quan"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1412.3857","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1412.3857","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191814+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1412.3857v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191814+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1412.3857","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191814+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"WDALENMJKWZV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:54.890064+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"WDALENMJKWZVUI7V","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:54.890064+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"WDALENMJ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:54.890064+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK","json":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/WDALENMJ"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/WDALENMJ","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1412.3857&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191814+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191814+00:00"}