{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:WDALENMJKWZVUI7VP3FCLLSNRK","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"dc79bbae6fa6244ecce499c3807802d895b5eb26c3352369826a536e404d4dea","cross_cats_sorted":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2014-12-11T23:05:11Z","title_canon_sha256":"1501175051e95ce1b56f6c47da74a733e9f05a1e1edb0f9c5ba1a9d6352a692f"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1412.3857","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1412.3857","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1412.3857v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1412.3857","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"WDALENMJKWZV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:54Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"WDALENMJKWZVUI7V","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:54Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"WDALENMJ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:54Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:fd010efcc54b2861ca47e0355af99fdbd7e3008e3a699a6d4f0e1d8c8e90e060","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quan","authors_text":"Eric Forgoston, Garrett Nieddu, Lora Billings","cross_cats":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2014-12-11T23:05:11Z","title":"Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1412.3857","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:404756755ab42da35dc5baac04c3dd3c8d69b2a65844560a94b6de3ca166a090","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"dc79bbae6fa6244ecce499c3807802d895b5eb26c3352369826a536e404d4dea","cross_cats_sorted":["cond-mat.stat-mech"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2014-12-11T23:05:11Z","title_canon_sha256":"1501175051e95ce1b56f6c47da74a733e9f05a1e1edb0f9c5ba1a9d6352a692f"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1412.3857","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"b0c0b2358955b35a23f57eca25ae4d8a95e77ce043a73d150635c80659104765","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"b0c0b2358955b35a23f57eca25ae4d8a95e77ce043a73d150635c80659104765","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191709Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.191709Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"1VkQBir30gFmLBVHyx4wv9DgyRoKDjVAKuyH0FgsR1gtrfuUDiuyZ74K4FGKZvkDTc7K607dpScHYzuiV0K8CA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:31:20.192365Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1412.3857","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:404756755ab42da35dc5baac04c3dd3c8d69b2a65844560a94b6de3ca166a090","sha256:fd010efcc54b2861ca47e0355af99fdbd7e3008e3a699a6d4f0e1d8c8e90e060"],"state_sha256":"4661a620b7416bac534860dc580cb97e84ff4a4526d1767b71bdc9c3e52dd16b"}