{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD","short_pith_number":"pith:WF3ZELMY","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2506.21460","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-26T16:41:55Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","math.ST","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"476273c6b689433b5ae1878805fd4ae0f949f1690cc6c5b7ee8401f940bcc240","abstract_canon_sha256":"146bcdd2101c7bccc9fff9d6e5cf034fc09ba54d1bd8058aeec6ecf7068f5ef7"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"b177922d9863d1c7d707cd20f2428d80eadbe6ca3c32b7f277caec1e5135c32d","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2506.21460","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2506.21460","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2506.21460v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2506.21460","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"WF3ZELMYMPI4","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYH","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"WF3ZELMY","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2025:WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2506.21460","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-26T16:41:55Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","math.ST","stat.TH"],"title_canon_sha256":"476273c6b689433b5ae1878805fd4ae0f949f1690cc6c5b7ee8401f940bcc240","abstract_canon_sha256":"146bcdd2101c7bccc9fff9d6e5cf034fc09ba54d1bd8058aeec6ecf7068f5ef7"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"b177922d9863d1c7d707cd20f2428d80eadbe6ca3c32b7f277caec1e5135c32d","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09.954474Z","signature_b64":"OVxNIjti/hG5OJiy3fzhL7uZyIRzdtEQjzBmvUpKZ323TZ3r5yUH3R+PiraMrLLexXDZ6+R7AcrKD6RqF6JOBw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"b177922d9863d1c7d707cd20f2428d80eadbe6ca3c32b7f277caec1e5135c32d","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09.954044Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09.954044Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2506.21460","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"dlv8M6LQ5BBd17QMiMJcOKC4msJBtY3XJaX0X/QFH9/SxeEWFDLvjHD2ngEWHyMSykh/7luLVN2FlEG/ypEZDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-09T18:28:38.683330Z"},"content_sha256":"94860bd61ab8d737437817185cddd215ddcd8a4ebcfc6070018eba02b9cd7876","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:94860bd61ab8d737437817185cddd215ddcd8a4ebcfc6070018eba02b9cd7876"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2025:WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Wild refitting for black box prediction","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","math.ST","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"Martin J. Wainwright","submitted_at":"2025-06-26T16:41:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"We describe and analyze a computionally efficient refitting procedure for computing high-probability upper bounds on the instance-wise mean-squared prediction error of penalized nonparametric estimates based on least-squares minimization. Requiring only a single dataset and black box access to the prediction method, it consists of three steps: computing suitable residuals, symmetrizing and scaling them with a pre-factor $\\rho$, and using them to define and solve a modified prediction problem recentered at the current estimate. We refer to it as wild refitting, since it uses Rademacher residual"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2506.21460","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2506.21460/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"XPsHoPBXX8ouqFtJwMbxbN5LNJLbgbSIJ/djzY35GulmfbsjnZ0OPafFbqiSxsnE9dnjSV5PR+i4meIE59NvBA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-09T18:28:38.683861Z"},"content_sha256":"e642323d3e3151be17289f1fc34742af465175ac877396a04f3d0867857b70bd","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:e642323d3e3151be17289f1fc34742af465175ac877396a04f3d0867857b70bd"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-09T18:28:38Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYHZUQPEQUNQD","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"146bcdd2101c7bccc9fff9d6e5cf034fc09ba54d1bd8058aeec6ecf7068f5ef7","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","math.ST","stat.TH"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-26T16:41:55Z","title_canon_sha256":"476273c6b689433b5ae1878805fd4ae0f949f1690cc6c5b7ee8401f940bcc240"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2506.21460","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2506.21460","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2506.21460v2","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2506.21460","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"WF3ZELMYMPI4","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"WF3ZELMYMPI4PVYH","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"WF3ZELMY","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:e642323d3e3151be17289f1fc34742af465175ac877396a04f3d0867857b70bd","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2506.21460/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We describe and analyze a computionally efficient refitting procedure for computing high-probability upper bounds on the instance-wise mean-squared prediction error of penalized nonparametric estimates based on least-squares minimization. Requiring only a single dataset and black box access to the prediction method, it consists of three steps: computing suitable residuals, symmetrizing and scaling them with a pre-factor $\\rho$, and using them to define and solve a modified prediction problem recentered at the current estimate. We refer to it as wild refitting, since it uses Rademacher residual","authors_text":"Martin J. Wainwright","cross_cats":["cs.LG","math.ST","stat.TH"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-26T16:41:55Z","title":"Wild refitting for black box prediction"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2506.21460","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:94860bd61ab8d737437817185cddd215ddcd8a4ebcfc6070018eba02b9cd7876","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"146bcdd2101c7bccc9fff9d6e5cf034fc09ba54d1bd8058aeec6ecf7068f5ef7","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","math.ST","stat.TH"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-06-26T16:41:55Z","title_canon_sha256":"476273c6b689433b5ae1878805fd4ae0f949f1690cc6c5b7ee8401f940bcc240"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2506.21460","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"b177922d9863d1c7d707cd20f2428d80eadbe6ca3c32b7f277caec1e5135c32d","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"b177922d9863d1c7d707cd20f2428d80eadbe6ca3c32b7f277caec1e5135c32d","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09.954044Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09.954044Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"OVxNIjti/hG5OJiy3fzhL7uZyIRzdtEQjzBmvUpKZ323TZ3r5yUH3R+PiraMrLLexXDZ6+R7AcrKD6RqF6JOBw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T11:34:09.954474Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2506.21460","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:94860bd61ab8d737437817185cddd215ddcd8a4ebcfc6070018eba02b9cd7876","sha256:e642323d3e3151be17289f1fc34742af465175ac877396a04f3d0867857b70bd"],"state_sha256":"e22ad3756724aba9384d8cbe917a75b596f978a8cd8c74f909e230d74d6ef833"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"YWho5yiuBpxCru9Z2fUgr7bc+Qpp4FAEjnu759blXhM3E1uM89Sq96skwr2ZDTYsARVGjGLiWcTRd/KT7vGlBA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-09T18:28:38.687632Z","bundle_sha256":"276db29149dcf5dc82d1ec05e9c38aa90292a2292c1dde0cdbcfa8cf7c8018b1"}}