{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:XCEWCWT7MZMWSTP23CKU4LFO4B","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"beebca5e21c9c328232e06dd6d873322a3e13ea33e0ebfac560658a025deb8a2","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-07-21T23:16:52Z","title_canon_sha256":"dcf548b4d1f8d90bed4c5f11888df8be3d383654830363687f6e63bcac2e29ae"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2607.19626","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2607.19626","created_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2607.19626v1","created_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2607.19626","created_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"XCEWCWT7MZMW","created_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"XCEWCWT7MZMWSTP2","created_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"XCEWCWT7","created_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:6e8addeedb501b45bf1e99a607f10eb35f3314c7d1dfc45492b98410a9fda296","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2607.19626/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Meta-analysts routinely test for publication bias, but a nonsignificant test is inconclusive because it may be a Type 2 error. In a large factorial simulation, I show that publication-bias tests have low power even with 1,000 studies once effect sizes are heterogeneous and the data do not meet the model's assumptions. I argue that the goal should shift from detecting bias to estimating it with confidence intervals. A confidence interval does not only bound the hypothesis that bias is absent; its upper bound also indicates how much bias remains compatible with the data. When the interval is wid","authors_text":"Ulrich Schimmack","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-07-21T23:16:52Z","title":"Beyond Publication-Bias Detection: Estimating Bias under Uncertainty in Heterogeneous Literatures"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.19626","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:42143197d0797c03e8902820f8952f01e230d4f9932ec2f6e18eb4d9da4b283a","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"beebca5e21c9c328232e06dd6d873322a3e13ea33e0ebfac560658a025deb8a2","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-07-21T23:16:52Z","title_canon_sha256":"dcf548b4d1f8d90bed4c5f11888df8be3d383654830363687f6e63bcac2e29ae"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2607.19626","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"b889615a7f6659694dfad8954e2caee07add904c9b07018249d1a4863a46c12e","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"b889615a7f6659694dfad8954e2caee07add904c9b07018249d1a4863a46c12e","first_computed_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00.543996Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00.543996Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"BG5SEgc2HoWxAHzfbx5hzPbQ+oJkQj4ze4hCZuETIAHOwLga0EsgFmTuczeJ1T3JuuIbuUQbIUSI9hDKnF5HAA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-23T00:24:00.544896Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2607.19626","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:42143197d0797c03e8902820f8952f01e230d4f9932ec2f6e18eb4d9da4b283a","sha256:6e8addeedb501b45bf1e99a607f10eb35f3314c7d1dfc45492b98410a9fda296"],"state_sha256":"4f4b08b21d88394a4dd53b4a9ab51278690ca63f4ee441c02d3a7271b32765b3"}