{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO","short_pith_number":"pith:YATIWR2X","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1302.2142","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2013-02-08T20:59:13Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"552f0189fb64b4874156700f6f9bcbade4329c63dde876784c74f6fca48eb4a6","abstract_canon_sha256":"8bc344a01375fddc45f5b2cc36a4e71237ebd1db9db0dc7c3f599b7a03307cca"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"c0268b4757309de9d86ded69bafda543a4a381cedd771a5342cc52d10a6d6cd2","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1302.2142","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1302.2142","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1302.2142v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1302.2142","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"YATIWR2XGCO6","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"YATIWR2X","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2013:YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1302.2142","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2013-02-08T20:59:13Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"552f0189fb64b4874156700f6f9bcbade4329c63dde876784c74f6fca48eb4a6","abstract_canon_sha256":"8bc344a01375fddc45f5b2cc36a4e71237ebd1db9db0dc7c3f599b7a03307cca"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"c0268b4757309de9d86ded69bafda543a4a381cedd771a5342cc52d10a6d6cd2","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12.678682Z","signature_b64":"fDaLwICdgRIczVoeagDkD6ELru6t2ZPR00aTsniBd2yxQ2wv5MY3kIqaiW09V4/D3Rd8EQ9LvGOdVX3Op5o5AA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"c0268b4757309de9d86ded69bafda543a4a381cedd771a5342cc52d10a6d6cd2","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12.678155Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12.678155Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1302.2142","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"N+IkOLHMre+jlghMQVGFvxXiRuJKRaYCBFaw8EQIn5t1xF1nR/W1o5UXlTLw6bmoHljcVU6OOnxcH4nGaQPIDw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-25T16:56:16.214167Z"},"content_sha256":"f0bbbf41ea503026679590b4ed4e02e1e661ac123c20b330b5056622778dbf61","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:f0bbbf41ea503026679590b4ed4e02e1e661ac123c20b330b5056622778dbf61"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2013:YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.CO","authors_text":"Andrew Gelman, Tian Zheng, Ying Liu","submitted_at":"2013-02-08T20:59:13Z","abstract_excerpt":"Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) intervals can be estimated directly from simulations via empirical shortest intervals. Unfortunately, these can be noisy (that is, have a high Monte Carlo error). We derive an optimal weighting strategy using bootstrap and quadratic programming to obtain a more compu- tationally stable HPD, or in general, shortest probability interval (Spin). We prove the consistency of our method. Simulation studies on a range of theoret- ical and real-data examples, some with symmetric and some with asymmetric posterior densities, show that intervals constructed using"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1302.2142","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"dBvs8VQ/PkgphkV2HnkziQwxiADrfsBPacgD0IdodNJc1gjuls7IYNbySwtAv4VE5y1+M3vxbO5GBii/2SoeAQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-25T16:56:16.214872Z"},"content_sha256":"77c9407976ae26a6d3806a7735ebebcd8c3e3fef6f9a113bc7fac1ba3b68c269","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:77c9407976ae26a6d3806a7735ebebcd8c3e3fef6f9a113bc7fac1ba3b68c269"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-05-25T16:56:16Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN5VU3V7NFIO","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"8bc344a01375fddc45f5b2cc36a4e71237ebd1db9db0dc7c3f599b7a03307cca","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2013-02-08T20:59:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"552f0189fb64b4874156700f6f9bcbade4329c63dde876784c74f6fca48eb4a6"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1302.2142","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1302.2142","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1302.2142v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1302.2142","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"YATIWR2XGCO6","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"YATIWR2XGCO6TWDN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"YATIWR2X","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:77c9407976ae26a6d3806a7735ebebcd8c3e3fef6f9a113bc7fac1ba3b68c269","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) intervals can be estimated directly from simulations via empirical shortest intervals. Unfortunately, these can be noisy (that is, have a high Monte Carlo error). We derive an optimal weighting strategy using bootstrap and quadratic programming to obtain a more compu- tationally stable HPD, or in general, shortest probability interval (Spin). We prove the consistency of our method. Simulation studies on a range of theoret- ical and real-data examples, some with symmetric and some with asymmetric posterior densities, show that intervals constructed using","authors_text":"Andrew Gelman, Tian Zheng, Ying Liu","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2013-02-08T20:59:13Z","title":"Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1302.2142","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:f0bbbf41ea503026679590b4ed4e02e1e661ac123c20b330b5056622778dbf61","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"8bc344a01375fddc45f5b2cc36a4e71237ebd1db9db0dc7c3f599b7a03307cca","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2013-02-08T20:59:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"552f0189fb64b4874156700f6f9bcbade4329c63dde876784c74f6fca48eb4a6"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1302.2142","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"c0268b4757309de9d86ded69bafda543a4a381cedd771a5342cc52d10a6d6cd2","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"c0268b4757309de9d86ded69bafda543a4a381cedd771a5342cc52d10a6d6cd2","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12.678155Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12.678155Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"fDaLwICdgRIczVoeagDkD6ELru6t2ZPR00aTsniBd2yxQ2wv5MY3kIqaiW09V4/D3Rd8EQ9LvGOdVX3Op5o5AA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:34:12.678682Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1302.2142","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:f0bbbf41ea503026679590b4ed4e02e1e661ac123c20b330b5056622778dbf61","sha256:77c9407976ae26a6d3806a7735ebebcd8c3e3fef6f9a113bc7fac1ba3b68c269"],"state_sha256":"c51dd019cf02d8e41316c24d1de017b26f5dbe5d172db3f861cc5df06600f044"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"2i4nx8SCs9HOcBM+sw4vgqkxs7kmvloa7soZmk2rmmmodJOXVrPrPMekvtIyS8kLgbypRYx2P8X/jC3jPTJfBA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-05-25T16:56:16.218749Z","bundle_sha256":"3e5fc937ba7af8fd49ba8ae7c2059aff9226d0dfce225ee5a23e70b6899f4a42"}}