{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:YJSDGNDYNMQ7W754LDBMQLBYY4","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b24830d3ff195b8ed9de0a9308bdb86606b920a866597d7afd89b63172726ae7","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-06-10T13:54:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"a5163cb8a5ba7badf7bffc6bbc000a9d59fcad2b29779bc47f7684f8fa1ab5aa"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.12097","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.12097","created_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.12097v1","created_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.12097","created_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"YJSDGNDYNMQ7","created_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"YJSDGNDYNMQ7W754","created_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"YJSDGNDY","created_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:0f0d330d3fc3d623a66180a3c21b70e8a0200cc42090fe26423f116b83cc1246","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2606.12097/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We present a one-month-ahead conditional probabilistic framework for wind-power forecasting at ten-minute resolution. Monthly Weibull shape and scale parameters are estimated from serially dependent SCADA wind-speed data, corrected through a Godambe covariance, and forecast by a heteroskedastic Kalman filter on a bivariate VAR(1) state-space model. Conditional on the MMSE forecasted Weibull invariant law, we construct and compare three positive wind-speed SDE models: an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-Weibull transform, a Fokker-Planck drift-first diffusion, and a Fokker-Planck diffusion-first model. The s","authors_text":"Luca Di Persio, Mehrdad Ghadiri","cross_cats":["physics.data-an"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-06-10T13:54:42Z","title":"Weibull-Stationary Stochastic Differential Equations for Conditional Long-Horizon Wind Power Forecasting"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.12097","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:e1910f8630aff9ae1104c1a4cd84b8326933b02da9d3f8cbc9b2d96b511484f3","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b24830d3ff195b8ed9de0a9308bdb86606b920a866597d7afd89b63172726ae7","cross_cats_sorted":["physics.data-an"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-06-10T13:54:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"a5163cb8a5ba7badf7bffc6bbc000a9d59fcad2b29779bc47f7684f8fa1ab5aa"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.12097","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"c2643334786b21fb7fbc58c2c82c38c73eae335d23e84e2c06f1d41ef81f9f6d","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"c2643334786b21fb7fbc58c2c82c38c73eae335d23e84e2c06f1d41ef81f9f6d","first_computed_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47.964179Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47.964179Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"PiIZMeB1iSnbbICrhmCbRsUwsExaqfQNXmtbxuCtJdoTUIz9DqVPlJUVsCkiku7K5xXgu5E6UPG3m+3EHuqIAg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-11T01:10:47.965070Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2606.12097","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:e1910f8630aff9ae1104c1a4cd84b8326933b02da9d3f8cbc9b2d96b511484f3","sha256:0f0d330d3fc3d623a66180a3c21b70e8a0200cc42090fe26423f116b83cc1246"],"state_sha256":"6313031690931dc884844b574f109755470cd6ac8da13d766b9ee15eba21430c"}