{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:YLRGDLVUZBALPNBDU5MEEVVB3E","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"d9e8a4916ca560fa6cbd3f62f891559d388fd741221d98b1becc0344a669fa8d","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2013-11-18T19:26:01Z","title_canon_sha256":"e53881db96c821af79a2472f9b907f276decbfbbf61a7254a97b5eae9e83f64a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1311.4500","kind":"arxiv","version":4}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1311.4500","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:08Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1311.4500v4","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:08Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1311.4500","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:08Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"YLRGDLVUZBAL","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"YLRGDLVUZBALPNBD","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"YLRGDLVU","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:06Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:ff3c0378951fa2570eedfe26ac44f6fdfb9deaa203c60b649f3c357bff85de22","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:08Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We address the problem of forecasting a time series meeting the Causal Bernoulli Shift model, using a parametric set of predictors. The aggregation technique provides a predictor with well established and quite satisfying theoretical properties expressed by an oracle inequality for the prediction risk. The numerical computation of the aggregated predictor usually relies on a Markov chain Monte Carlo method whose convergence should be evaluated. In particular, it is crucial to bound the number of simulations needed to achieve a numerical precision of the same order as the prediction risk. In th","authors_text":"Andres Sanchez-Perez (LTCI)","cross_cats":["stat.TH"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2013-11-18T19:26:01Z","title":"Time series prediction via aggregation : an oracle bound including numerical cost"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1311.4500","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:4d94666e1cc04d9f77e91d952a98ccc09fcffb40ebc9df8ac2d2a34bb9d0653f","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:08Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"d9e8a4916ca560fa6cbd3f62f891559d388fd741221d98b1becc0344a669fa8d","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.TH"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"math.ST","submitted_at":"2013-11-18T19:26:01Z","title_canon_sha256":"e53881db96c821af79a2472f9b907f276decbfbbf61a7254a97b5eae9e83f64a"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1311.4500","kind":"arxiv","version":4}},"canonical_sha256":"c2e261aeb4c840b7b423a7584256a1d9059ad1905a6dcc3677bb486372c4c016","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"c2e261aeb4c840b7b423a7584256a1d9059ad1905a6dcc3677bb486372c4c016","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:08.276177Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:08.276177Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"Uye1fNBLleeUyHvo4J01mLZhkPIoo5HQFHmRqx7hbyz5gEIEYlQmlavWG81kSxeQGcWIuvSflEktWgJat/U+Bg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:51:08.276561Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1311.4500","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":4}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:4d94666e1cc04d9f77e91d952a98ccc09fcffb40ebc9df8ac2d2a34bb9d0653f","sha256:ff3c0378951fa2570eedfe26ac44f6fdfb9deaa203c60b649f3c357bff85de22"],"state_sha256":"483a6715d189077224d6c164f8971209861fe432401107ef3d4da50de3b84413"}