{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2012:YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y","short_pith_number":"pith:YMDAXTFM","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"c3060bccac20447352868f8d16169ede1794cd5433642fc6d40567eac43c01c3","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1207.4471","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"How does the past of a soccer match influence its future?","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.data-an","authors_text":"Andreas Heuer, Oliver Rubner","submitted_at":"2012-07-18T19:58:10Z","abstract_excerpt":"Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian and Markovian behavior. Here a general framework for the identification of deviations from this behavior is presented. For this endeavor it is essential to formulate an a priori estimate of the expected number of goals per team in a specific match. The analysis scheme is applied to approximately 40 seasons of the German Bundesliga. It is possible to character"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1207.4471","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.data-an","submitted_at":"2012-07-18T19:58:10Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"e42fd4ebd48f97c0bc34c9b445ce701529279e9f66e520d33772571e0c0c049e","abstract_canon_sha256":"0f90780a8b46b9cde29b750747ef2a13f345a20a72feedf58200c2b5445e67c5"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:38.061367Z","signature_b64":"NagyMFEO7ZVxOZ5SOBs/mfCLgPurWPi7ufcnYun5XFUeh+SJjJvRmQ/vXJVnCA2uqPuibTBKWf2HOK9WfWiYAQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"c3060bccac20447352868f8d16169ede1794cd5433642fc6d40567eac43c01c3","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:38.060502Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:38.060502Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"How does the past of a soccer match influence its future?","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.data-an","authors_text":"Andreas Heuer, Oliver Rubner","submitted_at":"2012-07-18T19:58:10Z","abstract_excerpt":"Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian and Markovian behavior. Here a general framework for the identification of deviations from this behavior is presented. For this endeavor it is essential to formulate an a priori estimate of the expected number of goals per team in a specific match. The analysis scheme is applied to approximately 40 seasons of the German Bundesliga. It is possible to character"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1207.4471","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1207.4471","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:38.060643+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1207.4471v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:38.060643+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1207.4471","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:38.060643+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"YMDAXTFMEBCH","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:27.928770+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUG","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:27.928770+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"YMDAXTFM","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:27.928770+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y","json":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/YMDAXTFM"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/YMDAXTFM","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1207.4471&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/YMDAXTFMEBCHGUUGR6GRMFU63Y/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:38.060643+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-18T03:50:38.060643+00:00"}