{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK","short_pith_number":"pith:YNPTNWKS","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2408.12722","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2024-08-22T20:26:39Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"65afce52146fddc3e448bf527b0ced4527f0d49b8c835fd50759db1eb2dbde61","abstract_canon_sha256":"984005097f4b5df40f0b5dfb6f4d59a0ca1631b862ea02c48265f72e1f04f28f"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"c35f36d952f7054ade213ab15cbbfac29702f0b3996cf7ca2a8cc268d20e77d6","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2408.12722","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2408.12722","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2408.12722v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2408.12722","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"YNPTNWKS64CU","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"YNPTNWKS64CUVXRB","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"YNPTNWKS","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2408.12722","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2024-08-22T20:26:39Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"65afce52146fddc3e448bf527b0ced4527f0d49b8c835fd50759db1eb2dbde61","abstract_canon_sha256":"984005097f4b5df40f0b5dfb6f4d59a0ca1631b862ea02c48265f72e1f04f28f"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"c35f36d952f7054ade213ab15cbbfac29702f0b3996cf7ca2a8cc268d20e77d6","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29.207941Z","signature_b64":"PXTBFezNLB0+N6Sr8+Ay1enyLZHmNknZwk0QeaYdwTHeDCrJhInm9d3BMO0Go8I4V5KDd+A9IQljot1BFEzDBg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"c35f36d952f7054ade213ab15cbbfac29702f0b3996cf7ca2a8cc268d20e77d6","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29.207485Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29.207485Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2408.12722","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"kOSf3JngujxzaMnxMYUrGckAPVEbg57pJyXIJDp2UGCmgl+OhDKu5aBNcxx1MayOt/79VY0MuKxSO+5PXj6/Aw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-05T17:23:29.055175Z"},"content_sha256":"7fa32667c3792d46525afa1ffcb6c579fd8a374c0c6be789bcff44392ff11a6c","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:7fa32667c3792d46525afa1ffcb6c579fd8a374c0c6be789bcff44392ff11a6c"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2024:YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Does Spatial Information Improve Influenza Forecasting?","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Aaron Rumack, F. William Townes, Gabrielle Thivierge","submitted_at":"2024-08-22T20:26:39Z","abstract_excerpt":"Seasonal influenza forecasting is critical for public health and individual decision making. We investigate whether the inclusion of data about influenza activity in neighboring states can improve point predictions and distribution forecasting of influenza-like illness (ILI) in each US state using statistical regression models. Using CDC FluView ILI data from 2010-2019, we forecast weekly ILI in each US state with quantile, linear, and Poisson autoregressive models fit using different combinations of ILI data from the target state, neighboring states, and US weighted average. Scoring with root"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2408.12722","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2408.12722/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"Stm7ftMP6h8iA5aZty3Dq46H8lTKH196LFUMl+590xSux6dSQ7q+R7UN7L94IC628rIalC2MP4e0qCe6gdHZDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-05T17:23:29.056061Z"},"content_sha256":"028a9aa93bc6c1cca8b4036521bfbd73d9b5eece9e2d70bba850af29a3ccf14f","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:028a9aa93bc6c1cca8b4036521bfbd73d9b5eece9e2d70bba850af29a3ccf14f"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-08-05T17:23:29Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2024:YNPTNWKS64CUVXRBHKYVZO72YK","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"984005097f4b5df40f0b5dfb6f4d59a0ca1631b862ea02c48265f72e1f04f28f","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2024-08-22T20:26:39Z","title_canon_sha256":"65afce52146fddc3e448bf527b0ced4527f0d49b8c835fd50759db1eb2dbde61"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2408.12722","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2408.12722","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2408.12722v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2408.12722","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"YNPTNWKS64CU","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"YNPTNWKS64CUVXRB","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"YNPTNWKS","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:028a9aa93bc6c1cca8b4036521bfbd73d9b5eece9e2d70bba850af29a3ccf14f","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2408.12722/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Seasonal influenza forecasting is critical for public health and individual decision making. We investigate whether the inclusion of data about influenza activity in neighboring states can improve point predictions and distribution forecasting of influenza-like illness (ILI) in each US state using statistical regression models. Using CDC FluView ILI data from 2010-2019, we forecast weekly ILI in each US state with quantile, linear, and Poisson autoregressive models fit using different combinations of ILI data from the target state, neighboring states, and US weighted average. Scoring with root","authors_text":"Aaron Rumack, F. William Townes, Gabrielle Thivierge","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2024-08-22T20:26:39Z","title":"Does Spatial Information Improve Influenza Forecasting?"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2408.12722","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:7fa32667c3792d46525afa1ffcb6c579fd8a374c0c6be789bcff44392ff11a6c","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"984005097f4b5df40f0b5dfb6f4d59a0ca1631b862ea02c48265f72e1f04f28f","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2024-08-22T20:26:39Z","title_canon_sha256":"65afce52146fddc3e448bf527b0ced4527f0d49b8c835fd50759db1eb2dbde61"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2408.12722","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"c35f36d952f7054ade213ab15cbbfac29702f0b3996cf7ca2a8cc268d20e77d6","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"c35f36d952f7054ade213ab15cbbfac29702f0b3996cf7ca2a8cc268d20e77d6","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29.207485Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29.207485Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"PXTBFezNLB0+N6Sr8+Ay1enyLZHmNknZwk0QeaYdwTHeDCrJhInm9d3BMO0Go8I4V5KDd+A9IQljot1BFEzDBg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T08:58:29.207941Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2408.12722","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:7fa32667c3792d46525afa1ffcb6c579fd8a374c0c6be789bcff44392ff11a6c","sha256:028a9aa93bc6c1cca8b4036521bfbd73d9b5eece9e2d70bba850af29a3ccf14f"],"state_sha256":"7a4f3a4440c40b6cdac0f52cb604ad10403a6a2e5dc4a2cb7034547b0f0d2f05"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"qA9qRwzS407uo3OKw7GwsiXY9Fko5hoDBGi8acR5LkjnSKBv2ACTRs9u1UyTogSBgjHj7VjCWg3qMFnX5YBOCA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-08-05T17:23:29.062054Z","bundle_sha256":"7b87768df10a90f6fd5afe2fe0ffad4d12a9c2d4c17549fae9ea9f05db7d94b2"}}